Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 10

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)


	Cobreloa		Deportes Antofagasta

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.3	3.5
	2.08	3.3	3.15
	2.21	3.48	3.25
	1.98	3.6	3.49	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3
	2.1	3.38	3.06	Watch
	1.9	3.2	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.9)	3.34 ↑ (3.2)	3.21 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cobreloa
44.5%

Draw
27.2%

Deportes Antofagasta
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26.8%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

27.9%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cobreloa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Deportes Antofagasta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Antofagasta than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Cobreloa - Deportes Antofagasta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Tapia D. (G) 4. San Juan B. 5. Gonzalez R. (C) 15. Garcia D. 21. Muga C. 32. Velazco F. 29. Gatica J. 7. Zuniga S. 10. Insaurralde C. 11. Gotti G. 27. Sandoval M.	12. Hurtado Perez F. (C) 4. Tapia B. 6. Diaz C. 15. Ibacache A. 22. Suarez M. 8. Leyton S. 20. Cuadra A. 10. Rojas D. 16. Gallegos Panozzo M. 9. Monreal J. 17. Hurtado B.
Substitutes
14. Aranguiz T. 1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 8. Cornejo L. 3. Gonzalez Y. 19. Navarro Y. 24. Porras R. 13. Quezada A.	13. Abuhadba Z. 7. Bravo C. 25. Cisternas J. P. (G) 26. Hinojosa S. 3. Maluenda M. 21. Manzano F. 18. Rozas I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Insaurralde C. (Penalty Awarded),
33', Manzano F. 🟨,
37', Sandoval M. 🟨,
45+6', Gatica J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Garcia D. ↓, Cornejo L. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Sandoval M. ⚽,
66', Velazco F. 🟨,
70', Sandoval M. ↓, Navarro Y. ↑,
74', Rojas D. ↓, Bravo C. ↑,
79', Zuniga S. 🟨,
80', Cuadra A. ↓, Hinojosa S. ↑,
80', Leyton S. ↓, Manzano F. ↑,
85', Tapia B. ↓, Maluenda M. ↑,
88', Velazco F. ↓, Aranguiz T. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 2.

Cobreloa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Antofagasta is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Antofagasta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cobreloa is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:24. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cobreloa won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Cobreloa	26	13	9	4	44:27	17	48
5	Antofagasta	26	11	8	7	44:26	18	41

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Antofagasta - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 28.1%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cobreloa
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
26.04.26	Cobreloa - San Luis de Quillota	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	San Marcos de Arica - Cobreloa	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Unión Española - Cobreloa	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Cobreloa - Unión San Felipe	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	Cobreloa - Deportes Magallanes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLTWT
- Deportes Antofagasta
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
26.04.26	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Antofagasta	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Deportes Temuco - Deportes Antofagasta	3:3 ✺
29.03.26	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Iquique	4:0 ✺
22.03.26	Santiago Wanderers - Deportes Antofagasta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Cup
08.02.26	Cobreloa - Deportes Antofagasta	0:0
30.01.26	Deportes Antofagasta - Cobreloa	2:1
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
10.08.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Cobreloa	3:0
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Cobreloa	0:3
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
28.03.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Antofagasta	4:2
Chilean Cup
02.02.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Antofagasta	1:1
Club Friendly
18.01.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Antofagasta	2:1

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