Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 12

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	TNT Sports


	Cobreloa		Deportes Copiapó

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.65	4.85
	1.68	3.65	5.28
	1.55	4.55	4.89	Watch
	1.65	3.5	4.6
	1.73	3.73	4.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.9)	3.82 ↑ (3.43)	4.82 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cobreloa
56.4%

Draw
24.3%

Deportes Copiapó
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

26.9%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

26.8%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cobreloa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cobreloa's performance.

Deportes Copiapó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Copiapó might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cobreloa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Copiapó than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Copiapó could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Cobreloa - Deportes Copiapó Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Copiapó (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Copiapó (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Copiapó (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cobreloa will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Copiapó (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 4. San Juan B. 5. Gonzalez R. 17. Tapia D. 8. Cornejo L. 21. Muga C. 29. Gatica J. 32. Velazco F. 11. Gotti G. 10. Insaurralde C. 27. Sandoval M.	22. Temperini N. (G) 4. Ortiz A. 3. Suarez N. 5. Torres F. 15. Santander J. 20. Filla M. 6. Zamorano C. 8. Rios A. 28. Espoz F. 7. Ross C. 9. Palacios L.
Substitutes
14. Aranguiz T. 22. Delgado A. 3. Gonzalez Y. 19. Navarro Y. 24. Porras R. 30. Tapia D. (G)	21. Fernandez E. 10. Ledezma I. 1. Leyton R. (G) 27. Lopez M. 13. Opazo D. 26. Perez G. 23. Rojas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Insaurralde C. (Penalty Awarded),
15', Temperini N. 🟨,
17', 2 - 0, Gotti G. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Sandoval M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Suarez N. ↓, Opazo D. ↑,
59', Torres F. ↓, Perez G. ↑,
59', Espoz F. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
64', Sandoval M. ↓, Delgado A. ↑,
64', Ross C. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
64', Zamorano C. ↓, Ledezma I. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Fernandez E. ⚽,
71', 3 - 1, Delgado A. ⚽,
78', Gatica J. ↓, Aranguiz T. ↑,
79', Gotti G. 🟨,
82', 4 - 1, Delgado A. ⚽,
90+2', Insaurralde C. ↓, Navarro Y. ↑,
90+3', Velazco F. ↓, Porras R. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Cobreloa is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cobreloa won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:12. (average 1.8:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Cobreloa	26	13	9	4	44:27	17	48
8	Copiapo	26	10	7	9	40:39	1	37

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cobreloa
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
09.05.26	Santiago Wanderers - Cobreloa	5:1 ✺
03.05.26	Cobreloa - Deportes Antofagasta	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Cobreloa - San Luis de Quillota	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	San Marcos de Arica - Cobreloa	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Unión Española - Cobreloa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLT
- Deportes Copiapó
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
10.05.26	Deportes Copiapó - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Copiapó	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Deportes Copiapó - San Marcos de Arica	0:3 ✺
19.04.26	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Recoleta	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
24.08.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Copiapó	1:1
Chilean Cup
10.05.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Copiapó	3:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
19.04.25	Deportes Copiapó - Cobreloa	1:1
Chilean Cup
28.01.25	Deportes Copiapó - Cobreloa	1:1
Chilean Primera Division
07.10.24	Cobreloa - Deportes Copiapó	4:1
12.05.24	Deportes Copiapó - Cobreloa	4:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
27.11.22	Cobreloa - Deportes Copiapó	0:5

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