Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de Colegiales (Buenos Aires)


	Colegiales		Güemes

	1	X	2
	1.86	2.85	5.25	Watch
	1.92	2.82	4.55	Watch
	1.93	2.95	5.18
	2.09	2.64	4.86	Watch
	1.95	2.8	4.5
	1.88	2.78	4.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.26)	2.81 ↑ (2.63)	4.86 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colegiales
47.9%

Draw
33.1%

Güemes
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

35.5%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

31.6%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colegiales has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Colegiales's performance.

Güemes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colegiales than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Colegiales that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Güemes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Colegiales - Güemes Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Güemes will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Güemes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Güemes (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Güemes (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Güemes (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Di Fulvio E. (C) 4. Malagueno F. 6. Ortiz L. 2. Rivero F. 3. Hanashiro F. 8. Ocampo E. 5. Marin F. 11. Trinidad E. 10. Zicarelli F. 9. Monserrat R. E. 7. Gonzalez L.	1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Bordon A. 2. Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 6. Melillan F. 3. Benitez M. (C) 8. Gerez M. 5. Baier G. 11. Godoy F. 10. Veliz D. 7. Sala S. G. 9. Amilivia T.
Substitutes
19. Albertengo M. 12. Alcorcel A. (G) 18. Castillo L. 15. Chiavetto A. 13. Insua E. 17. Juarez L. 14. Martinez Montagnoli L. 16. Montiel F. 20. Toloza N.	16. Arnay R. 18. Esposito G. 17. Farrera S. 14. Lazza E. 12. Martinez L. (G) 20. Mendoza J. 13. Oneto T. 19. Pugliese G. 15. Rizzi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Gonzalez L. ⚽,
34', Zicarelli F. 🟨,
43', Godoy F. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Zicarelli F. ↓, Castillo L. ↑,
57', Gonzalez L. ↓, Albertengo M. ↑,
57', Monserrat R. E. ↓, Toloza N. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Sala S. G. ⚽, Veliz D. (A),
64', Melillan F. 🟨,
66', Amilivia T. ↓, Mendoza J. ↑,
66', Gerez M. ↓, Pugliese G. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Toloza N. ⚽, Hanashiro F. (A),
74', Trinidad E. ↓, Montiel F. ↑,
75', 3 - 1, Montiel F. ⚽, Castillo L. (A),
77', Veliz D. ↓, Farrera S. ↑,
77', Bordon A. ↓, Arnay R. ↑,
80', Ocampo E. ↓, Juarez L. ↑,
85', Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 🟨,
86', 4 - 1, Rivero F. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Baier G. 🟨,
89', Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 🟨,
90', Sala S. G. ↓, Oneto T. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Colegiales has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Güemes is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Colegiales will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Colegiales won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Colegiales won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Colegiales - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.27%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Güemes - the odds 4.01 are the expected chance of winning is 23.26%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Colegiales
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.05.26	Chacarita Juniors - Colegiales	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Colegiales - San Martín de San Juan	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Nueva Chicago - Colegiales	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Colegiales - Temperley	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Deportivo Maipú - Colegiales	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWTTL
- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.05.26	Güemes - Quilmes	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Güemes	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Güemes - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Güemes - San Martín de Tucumán	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.08.25	Güemes - Colegiales	1:0
26.04.25	Colegiales - Güemes	1:0

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