Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Referee: Galia S. (Gib)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Finland	HJK TV
Germany	Laola1
United-kingdom	Nifl TV, Solidsport TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Coleraine		HJK

	1	X	2
	3.40	3.50	1.95	Watch
	3.25	3.50	1.98
	3.20	3.90	1.96	Watch
	3.42	3.61	2.03
	3.36	3.71	2.01	Watch
	3.35	3.55	1.94
	3.54	3.68	2.05	Watch
	3.40	3.50	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↓ (4.27)	3.62 ↓ (4.15)	1.99 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Coleraine
27.6%

Draw
25.7%

HJK
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

22.7%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

21.9%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coleraine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Coleraine's performance.

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and HJK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coleraine than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Coleraine that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that HJK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	15.8%	73.7%

Coleraine - HJK Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Coleraine will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). HJK will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for HJK: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (2.89) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Webb L. (G) 2. Kane L. 3. Jarvis D. 23. Doherty B. 8. Patching W. 4. Boyle D. 21. McDonald R. 22. Wylie B. 11. Cooper J. (C) 9. Shevlin M. 20. Devine S.	1. Ost J. (G) 28. Ylitolva M. 6. Tikkanen V. 3. Cissokho T. 13. Simojoki K. 17. Kirilov M. 32. Gueye M. 10. Lingman L. (C) 7. Cicale A. 20. Pukki T. 18. Mero T.
Substitutes
17. Henderson J. 26. Hunt C. 15. Ives L. 6. Lyons-Foster K. 7. McGregor L. 24. McMenamin C. 10. Murray C. 31. Robinson Z. (G)	29. Haarala S. 15. Kallinen J. 24. Levealahti E. 44. Markovic M. (G) 22. Moller L. 14. Montano L. 4. Ring A.
Coaches
Higgins R.	Rantanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Mero T. ⚽, Cicale A. (A),
34', 0 - 2, Cicale A. ⚽, Pukki T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lingman L. ↓, Kallinen J. ↑,
46', Cissokho T. ↓, Levealahti E. ↑,
46', Jarvis D. ↓, Ives L. ↑,
54', 0 - 3, Gueye M. ⚽, Pukki T. (A),
55', Cooper J. 🟨,
56', Shevlin M. ↓, McMenamin C. ↑,
64', Devine S. ↓, Henderson J. ↑,
65', Patching W. ↓, McGregor L. ↑,
78', Mero T. ↓, Moller L. ↑,
78', Kirilov M. ↓, Ring A. ↑,
78', Gueye M. ↓, Haarala S. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-5. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Inver Park.

Recent performances by Coleraine have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

HJK is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

HJK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Coleraine has had a series of away games.

Recently, HJK has had a series of home games.

HJK is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Coleraine won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Last Results with these Odds

HJK - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 55.3%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coleraine FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	HJK - Coleraine	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Coleraine - Portadown	3:0 ✺
14.07.26	Sligo Rovers - Coleraine	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Limavady United - Coleraine	0:1 ✺
Northern Irish Charity Shield
03.07.26	Larne - Coleraine	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWWL
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
26.07.26	HJK - TPS	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	HJK - Coleraine	5:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.07.26	HJK - VPS Vaasa	2:1 ✺
11.07.26	Lahti - HJK	2:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
01.07.26	HJK - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	HJK - Coleraine	5:0

Upcoming Matches