Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 17

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	HJK		TPS

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.00	7.00	Watch
	1.39	5.00	6.75
	1.41	4.50	6.40	Watch
	1.36	5.89	8.63
	1.37	5.37	7.35	Watch
	1.31	5.8	8.5
	1.36	5.20	7.16	Watch
	1.33	5	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.52)	5.22 ↑ (4.52)	7.32 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
69.1%

Draw
18%

TPS
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

20.9%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

20.5%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HJK's performance.

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HJK than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HJK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	5%	5%

HJK - TPS Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: HJK will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Markovic M. (G) 28. Ylitolva M. 6. Tikkanen V. 3. Cissokho T. 14. Montano L. 10. Lingman L. 4. Ring A. (C) 8. Mentu P. 22. Moller L. 29. Haarala S. 18. Mero T.	1. Henriksson E. (G) 6. Juvanteny P. 4. Sairinen A. 15. Azongnitode C. 20. Kauppila M. 24. Talo N. 10. Konkkola M. 26. Ikonen L. 22. Zaal T. 29. Muzaci A. (C) 99. Visser K.
Substitutes
31. Bogicevic M. 9. Borchers M. 7. Cicale A. 32. Gueye M. 15. Kallinen J. 17. Kirilov M. 1. Ost J. (G) 20. Pukki T. 13. Simojoki K.	41. Anini S. 12. Asula H. (G) 8. Coulibaly A. 7. Harjanne R. 14. Hradecky M. 13. Tsirigotis T. 28. Vakiparta T. 11. Vauhkonen E. 44. Veinbergs N.
Coaches
Rantanen J.	Pinol I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Haarala S. ⚽,
32', Ring A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Konkkola M. ↓, Anini S. ↑,
56', Ikonen L. ↓, Vakiparta T. ↑,
63', Haarala S. ↓, Pukki T. ↑,
63', Mentu P. ↓, Kallinen J. ↑,
69', Zaal T. 🟨,
69', Talo N. ↓, Vauhkonen E. ↑,
74', Lingman L. ↓, Cicale A. ↑,
81', Zaal T. ↓, Veinbergs N. ↑,
87', Moller L. ↓, Kirilov M. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HJK won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

HJK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, HJK has had a series of home games.

In this match, HJK is the team to beat.

There will not play in HJK: Ezeh D. (Injury) Nylund A. (Injury) Toivonen E. (Injury)

There will not play in TPS: Haggstrom O. (Red Card)

There are questionable in TPS: Tsirigotis T. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, HJK won 14 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 41:15. (average 2.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, HJK won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:9. (average 2.3:0.9).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	HJK	26	13	6	7	45:29	16	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	HJK - Coleraine	5:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.07.26	HJK - VPS Vaasa	2:1 ✺
11.07.26	Lahti - HJK	2:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
01.07.26	HJK - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	HJK - KuPS Kuopio	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWL
- TPS
Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.26	TPS - Ilves	1:3 ✺
11.07.26	TPS - Oulu	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	SJK - TPS	3:1 ✺
27.06.26	TPS - FF Jaro	3:2 ✺
23.06.26	Lahti - TPS	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
08.05.26	TPS - HJK	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
21.02.26	HJK - TPS	3:1
Club Friendly
28.03.24	HJK - TPS	5:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.09.20	HJK - TPS	2:2
22.07.20	TPS - HJK	0:2
Finnish Cup
23.06.20	TPS - HJK	0:1
25.01.20	HJK - TPS	3:0

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