Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 15

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Lahden Stadion (Lahti)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Onefootball


	Lahti		HJK

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.6	2.25	Watch
	2.80	3.50	2.30
	2.82	3.45	2.32	Watch
	2.86	3.81	2.43
	2.7	3.81	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3.75	2.3
	2.71	3.71	2.32	Watch
	2.7	3.5	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (3.24)	3.64 ↓ (3.77)	2.32 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lahti
34%

Draw
25.7%

HJK
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

24.9%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

24.4%

47%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lahti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and HJK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lahti than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lahti that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that HJK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	15.8%	52.6%

Lahti - HJK Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Lahti will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). HJK will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for HJK: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Maukonen O. (G) 27. Yapi R. 5. Gianini Dantas N. (C) 4. Muller J. 3. Sans R. 8. Montiel C. 18. Cassubie Y. 10. Koskinen O. 77. Sarr M. 19. Neemias 11. Martim Augusto	1. Ost J. (G) 28. Ylitolva M. 2. Lyons-Foster B. 3. Cissokho T. 14. Montano L. 22. Moller L. 15. Kallinen J. 10. Lingman L. (C) 7. Cicale A. 29. Haarala S. 9. Borchers M.
Substitutes
14. Andersson E. 17. Belabid A. 12. Hakala A. (G) 7. Heikkinen D. 28. Kabashi A. 2. Lehtonen J. 9. Lindholm A. 20. Ojanen J. 6. Vehkonen V.	31. Bogicevic M. 32. Gueye M. 12. Haapanen M. (G) 17. Kirilov M. 26. Lappalainen L. 8. Mentu P. 20. Pukki T. 4. Ring A. 13. Simojoki K.
Coaches
Pereira G.	Rantanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Koskinen O. ⚽, Sarr M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Montiel C. 🟨,
48', Gianini Dantas N. 🟨,
59', Cicale A. ↓, Pukki T. ↑,
59', Kallinen J. ↓, Kirilov M. ↑,
59', Haarala S. ↓, Ring A. ↑,
68', Koskinen O. ↓, Andersson E. ↑,
71', Moller L. ↓, Lappalainen L. ↑,
74', Yapi R. 🟨,
75', 2 - 0, Neemias ⚽, Cassubie Y. (A),
77', Martim Augusto ↓, Belabid A. ↑,
79', Lingman L. ↓, Mentu P. ↑,
84', Sarr M. ↓, Vehkonen V. ↑,
84', Neemias ↓, Lindholm A. ↑,
85', Yapi R. ↓, Lehtonen J. ↑,
90+5', Pereira G. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lahti won 3.

In recent matches, Lahti has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

HJK is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

HJK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

HJK could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in HJK: Ezeh D. (Injury) Nylund A. (Injury) Toivonen E. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lahti won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:35. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lahti won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.4:1.1).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	HJK	26	13	6	7	45:29	16	45

Last Results with these Odds

HJK - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 46.1%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lahti
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	Lahti - Gnistan	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Oulu - Lahti	1:1 ✺
23.06.26	Lahti - TPS	0:0 ✺
17.06.26	Gnistan - Lahti	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Lahti - SJK	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTTLL
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Cup
01.07.26	HJK - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	HJK - KuPS Kuopio	0:4 ✺
23.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - HJK	0:4 ✺
17.06.26	HJK - Inter Turku	3:3 ✺
13.06.26	FF Jaro - HJK	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.05.26	HJK - Lahti	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
24.01.26	Lahti - HJK	2:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
03.08.24	Lahti - HJK	2:1
11.04.24	HJK - Lahti	4:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
27.02.24	Lahti - HJK	3:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
08.07.23	HJK - Lahti	0:1
07.06.23	Lahti - HJK	1:2

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