Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 9 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental David Arellano (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV


	Colo-Colo		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.35	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.31	3.19	3.45
	2.39	3.15	3.3
	2.25	3.1	3	Watch
	2.35	3.25	3.14	Watch
	2.31	3.1	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.54)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	3.17 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colo-Colo
40.6%

Draw
29.7%

Fluminense
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

28.8%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

28.6%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colo-Colo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colo-Colo than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	63.6%	9.1%

Colo Colo - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Colo-Colo will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Fluminense will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cortes B. (G) 16. Opazo Lara O. 37. Falcon M. 4. Saldivia A. 21. Wiemberg E. 34. Pizarro V. 8. Pavez E. 11. Bolados M. 14. Zavala C. 9. Pizarro D. 7. Carlos Palacios	1. Fabio (G) 77. Marquinhos 26. Manoel 30. Felipe Melo (C) 12. Marcelo 45. Lima 8. Martinelli 90. Douglas Costa 10. PH Ganso 21. Arias J. 14. Cano G.
Substitutes
15. Amor E. 22. Benegas L. 32. Cepeda L. 30. De Paul F. (G) 33. Gonzalez R. 13. Gutierrez B. 3. Gutierrez D. 26. Moya M. 20. Oroz A. 29. Paiva G. 2. Rojas J. 28. Soto L.	5. Alexsander 25. Antonio Carlos 31. Calegari 80. David Terans 6. Diogo Barbosa 27. Felipe Alves (G) 13. Felipe Andrade 23. Guga 32. Isaac 19. Kaua Elias 11. Keno 17. Lucumi J.
Coaches
Almiron J.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Cano G. 🟨,
39', Douglas Costa ↓, Alexsander ↑,
45', Felipe Melo 🟨,
45+2', PH Ganso 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', Fabio 🟨,
69', Wiemberg E. 🟨,
71', Zavala C. ↓, Cepeda L. ↑,
71', Pizarro D. ↓, Paiva G. ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Manoel ⚽, Marcelo (A),
79', Manoel 🟨,
83', Felipe Melo ↓, Antonio Carlos ↑,
83', PH Ganso ↓, Guga ↑,
88', Paiva G. 🟨,
90', Bolados M. ↓, Benegas L. ↑,
90', Opazo Lara O. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
90+4', David Terans 🟨,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Fluminense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Colo-Colo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Colo-Colo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colo-Colo
Chilean Primera Division
04.05.24	Cobresal - Colo-Colo	2:2 ✺
28.04.24	Colo-Colo - Unión La Calera	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Colo-Colo - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
20.04.24	Universidad Católica - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
15.04.24	Colo-Colo - Cobreloa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWTWL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Fluminense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Corinthians - Fluminense	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Fluminense - Colo-Colo	2:1

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