Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	08:00	beIN Sports
Bosnia And Herzegovina	00:00	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	01:00	Max Sport 4
Croatia	00:00	Arena Sport
Netherlands	00:00	ESPN
Portugal	23:00	Sport TV
Serbia	00:00	Arena Sport


	Cerro Porteño		Fluminense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.5
	2.95	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.92	3.22	2.62
	2.9	3.22	2.61
	2.7	3.2	2.4	Watch
	2.92	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.9	3.15	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.23)	3.18 ↓ (3.32)	2.5 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Porteño
32.7%

Draw
29.6%

Fluminense
37.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29%

28.2%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

28.3%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Porteño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Cerro Porteño - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Fluminense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jean (G) 2. Benitez A. 4. Eduardo Brock 24. Baez C. 21. Arzamendia S. 26. Piris R. 5. Morel J. 33. Peralta F. 11. Iturbe J. 19. Diego Churin (C) 10. Dominguez C.	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 26. Manoel 30. Felipe Melo (C) 12. Marcelo 7. Andre 8. Martinelli 77. Marquinhos 10. PH Ganso 21. Arias J. 14. Cano G.
Substitutes
17. Aguayo G. 34. Benitez M. 32. Cabanas V. 6. Carrascal R. 8. Carrizo F. 35. De Jesus R. 9. Edu 40. Fernandez F. 1. Martin A. (G) 39. Portillo Avalos T. G. 27. Riveros L. 20. Viera W.	25. Antonio Carlos 80. David Terans 6. Diogo Barbosa 90. Douglas Costa 27. Felipe Alves (G) 13. Felipe Andrade 23. Guga 32. Isaac 45. Lima 46. Lucas Justen 17. Lucumi J. 20. Renato Augusto
Coaches
Jimenez M.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Morel J. ↓, Viera W. ↑,
45+2', Andre ↓, Lima ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Diego Churin 🟨,
65', PH Ganso ↓, Renato Augusto ↑,
65', Felipe Melo ↓, Antonio Carlos ↑,
66', Marquinhos ↓, Douglas Costa ↑,
66', Diego Churin ↓, Edu ↑,
67', Iturbe J. ↓, Aguayo G. ↑,
76', Peralta F. ↓, Carrizo F. ↑,
76', Dominguez C. ↓, Carrascal R. ↑,
84', Marcelo ↓, Diogo Barbosa ↑,
90+2', Lima 🟨,
90+3', Carrizo F. 🟨,
90+5', Baez C. 🟨,
90+6', Manoel 🟨,

Preview

Cerro Porteño is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Fluminense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Cerro Porteño won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Cerro Porteño won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.24	2 de Mayo - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
14.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Alianza Lima	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.04.24	Colo-Colo - Cerro Porteño	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
16.04.24	Bahia - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	Fluminense - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Fluminense - Colo-Colo	2:1 ✺
03.04.24	Alianza Lima - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
03.08.21	Fluminense - Cerro Porteño	1:0
13.07.21	Cerro Porteño - Fluminense	0:2

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