Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista A3 - Round 13

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday


	Comercial SP		Bandeirante

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.87	3.6
	2.55	2.9	2.75
	2.11	3.13	2.85
	2.18	3.28	3.07	Watch
	2	2.8	4.2
	2.01	3.1	4.02
	2.55	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (3.07)	3 ↑ (2.8)	3.32 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comercial SP
41.8%

Draw
30.6%

Bandeirante
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

32.5%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

32.7%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Comercial SP's performance.

Bandeirante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bandeirante might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Comercial SP that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bandeirante than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bandeirante could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Comercial SP - Bandeirante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', 1 - 0, Guilherme Pitbull ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', 2 - 0, (Own goal),

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A4 and 10).

Comercial SP is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Bandeirante is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Bandeirante - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 37.89%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
01.03.25	Comercial SP - EC São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
26.02.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Comercial SP - Francana	1:1 ✺
19.02.25	Sertãozinho - Comercial SP	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Comercial SP - Itapirense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLTTL
- Bandeirante EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
01.03.25	Rio Preto - Bandeirante	3:0 ✺
26.02.25	Bandeirante - União Suzano	3:0 ✺
22.02.25	EC São Bernardo - Bandeirante	1:1 ✺
19.02.25	Bandeirante - Rio Branco de Americana	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Bandeirante	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWTWL

Comercial SP - Bandeirante: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide