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Current Win Probability
Concórdia 32.4%
Draw 31.7%
Hercílio Luz 35.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38.8%
31%
30.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.2%
30.7%
30%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Concórdia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Concórdia's form might have worsened.
Hercílio Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hercílio Luz's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concórdia than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Concórdia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (-5.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hercílio Luz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Concórdia - Hercílio Luz Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Alexandre Villa (G) 7. Eli Junior 3. Felipe Siedekum 5. Foguinho 2. Gabriel Biteco 8. Indio 9. Kerlly 11. Lipe Lenger 6. Patryck Annes 10. Pericles 4. Rafael Augusto (C)
1. Renan Rocha (G) 4. Alisson Santana 5. Emanuel Jesus 10. Gabriel Silva 3. Geninho (C) 11. Kadu Barone 6. Leo Herrero 2. Lucas Lopes 8. Matheus Neris 7. Richard 9. Yuri Sousa
Substitutes
19. Caio Mores 20. Cristian 21. Felipe Rangel 18. Gustavo Brandao 14. Kenzo 15. Luan 17. Matheus Baseggio 16. Pedro Cella 13. Pedro M. 12. Rodrigo Lucas (G) 22. Wilgner 23. William
19. Alex Henrique 13. Andre Baumer 14. Davi Souza 17. Dudu Silva 16. Filipe Fraga 22. Gianluca (G) 12. Igor Pavan (G) 15. Luizao 18. Luiz Felipe 20. Vitinho
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Kerlly ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yuri Sousa ↓, Alex Henrique ↑,
46', Emanuel Jesus ↓, Vitinho ↑,
46', Eli Junior ↓, Pedro M. ↑,
46', Kerlly ↓, Cristian ↑,
60', Lipe Lenger ↓, Felipe Rangel ↑,
60', Indio ↓, Wilgner ↑,
65', Matheus Neris ↓, Dudu Silva ↑,
80', Richard ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
83', Dudu Silva 🟨,
83', 🟨,
Preview
Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: ) and 12 in the zone Relegation).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Concórdia won 0.
Recent matches Concórdia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Hercílio Luz has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Hercílio Luz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.
Last 10 head-to-head matches Concórdia won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 5:13 (average 0.5:1.3).
Including matches at home between the teams Concórdia won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.3:0.5).
Brazil
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Alexandre Villa (G) 
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