Match Info

Date: 24 September 2022, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Concordia Elbląg		Ursus Warszawa

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Concordia Elbląg
26.7%

Draw
24.9%

Ursus Warszawa
48.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.8%

26%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

25.8%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Concordia Elbląg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Ursus Warszawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ursus Warszawa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concordia Elbląg than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ursus Warszawa than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ursus Warszawa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 13).

Concordia has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Ursus Warszawa is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ursus Warszawa will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Concordia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Concordia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Concordia Elbląg
Polish Division 3 - Group I
17.09.22	Sokół Ostróda - Concordia Elbląg	2:1 ✺
10.09.22	Concordia Elbląg - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
04.09.22	Pelikan Łowicz - Concordia Elbląg	2:0 ✺
28.08.22	Concordia Elbląg - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
20.08.22	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Concordia Elbląg	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- RKS Ursus Warszawa
Polish Division 3 - Group I
17.09.22	Ursus Warszawa - Olimpia Zambrów	3:3 ✺
10.09.22	Pilica Białobrzegi - Ursus Warszawa	0:0 ✺
03.09.22	Ursus Warszawa - Warta Sieradz	1:1 ✺
27.08.22	Legia II - Ursus Warszawa	2:2 ✺
21.08.22	Ursus Warszawa - Mławianka Mława	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTTTL

Polish Division 3 - Group I
24.04.21	Concordia Elbląg - Ursus Warszawa	0:2
29.08.20	Ursus Warszawa - Concordia Elbląg	3:1
02.11.19	Concordia Elbląg - Ursus Warszawa	1:0
03.05.17	Concordia Elbląg - Ursus Warszawa	2:1

Concordia Elbląg - Ursus Warszawa