Match Info

Sergipano - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao) (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TV Record


	Confiança		Guarany de Porto da Folha

	1	X	2
	1.27	4.95	8.4
	1.27	5.08	9.19
	1.3	4.6	9.5
	1.26	4.95	9.4
	1.38	4.4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.38)	4.8 ↑ (4.4)	8.66 ↑ (6.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
70.4%

Draw
19%

Guarany de Porto da Folha
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

20.7%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.7%

20.1%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Guarany de Porto da Folha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Porto da Folha than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Confiança (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 11. Andrey Quintino 7. Danielzinho 3. Icaro 10. Kelvyn 5. Lorran 6. Marcelo 4. Renilson 2. Valdir Junior 9. Wendel 22. Weriton	1. Danilo 8. Evinho 6. Gabriel 7. Guilherme J. 11. Henrique L. 9. Igor Ryan 5. Jacobina 4. Kaio Henrique 3. Kaique 2. Rayamersson 10. Tiba

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Lorran ↓, Eduardo Moura ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Weriton ↓, Bruno Silva ↑,
46', Andrey Quintino ↓, Maikon Aquino ↑,
54', Marcelo ↓, Fabricio ↑,
62', Igor Ryan ↓, Italo ↑,
67', Rayamersson 🟨,
69', Kaique ↓, Fabricio ↑,
74', Wendel ↓, Sassa ↑,
74', Gabriel ↓, Wesley ↑,
75', Henrique L. ↓, Nel H. ↑,
88', 🟨,
90+3', Kaio Henrique 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', Sassa 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, Sassa (Penalty Awarded),
1, Rafael Pascoal (Penalty Awarded),
2, Icaro (Penalty Awarded),
2, Tiba (Penalty Awarded),
3, Fabrício (Penalty Awarded),
3, Kaio Henrique (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Confiança is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guarany PF's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Confiança is the obvious favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:1. (average 3.7:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Confiança won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:1. (average 3.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.02.26	Confiança - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
11.02.26	Dorense - Confiança	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
05.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Sergipe - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWWWL
- Guarany de Porto da Folha
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.02.26	Itabaiana - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Falcon	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Desportiva Aracaju	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Atlético Gloriense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
05.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0
13.01.25	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	5:1
31.01.19	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	5:0

Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide