Match Info

Sergipano - Round 9

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Etelvino Mendonca (Itabaiana) 🌤️ ...


	Itabaiana		Guarany de Porto da Folha

	1	X	2
	1.39	3.9	7.5
	1.37	4.05	7.57
	1.38	4.08	8.23
	1.33	4.2	9
	1.33	4.05	9.7
	1.37	4.2	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.55)	4.08 ↑ (3.72)	8.25 ↑ (5.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
66.7%

Draw
22.3%

Guarany de Porto da Folha
11%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.6%

24.4%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.7%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Itabaiana's performance.

Guarany de Porto da Folha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guarany de Porto da Folha might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Itabaiana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Porto da Folha than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guarany de Porto da Folha could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Itabaiana - Guarany de Porto da Folha Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
86', 0 - 1, ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Itabaiana is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Guarany PF is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Itabaiana is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guarany PF's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Guarany PF has had a series of home games.

In this match, Itabaiana is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
11.02.26	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	0:3 ✺
08.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
04.02.26	Itabaiana - Dorense	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Lagarto - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Itabaiana - Desportiva Aracaju	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWTW
- Guarany de Porto da Folha
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
11.02.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Falcon	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Desportiva Aracaju	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Atlético Gloriense	3:2 ✺
25.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
22.01.25	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Itabaiana	1:1
12.01.19	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Itabaiana	1:3

Itabaiana - Guarany de Porto da Folha