Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao) (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Confiança		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.87	3.75
	1.96	3.15	4.00	Watch
	2.14	3.01	3.85
	1.94	3.08	4.36	Watch
	2.11	2.95	3.50
	2.05	3.05	3.94	Watch
	2.03	2.85	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.91)	2.99 ↓ (3.2)	3.86 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Confiança
45.4%

Draw
30.7%

Itabaiana
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

28.9%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

29.6%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Confiança - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Silva (G) 3. Alisson 8. Gabriel Zeca 4. Icaro 11. Joao Pedro 6. Kelvyn 7. Madison 9. Maikon Aquino 10. PK 5. Renilson 2. Valdir Junior	1. Jefferson (G) 9. Cleiton 8. Dyego 5. Gustavo Crecci 3. Gustavo Fagundes 7. Leilson 4. Ligger 11. Renatinho 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tarcisio
Substitutes
21. Breiner C. 12. Cadu (G) 23. Eduardo Moura 22. Fabricio 18. Guilherme Nunes 20. Iago Silva 13. Joao Mandovani 14. Mateus Ludke 16. Matheus Juliao 15. Paulo Henrique 17. Pedro Felipe 19. Welder	21. Caio Felipe 17. Dudu 18. Elimar 19. Everton Kanela 12. Geaze (G) 14. Gustavo Cintra 15. Isaque 23. Julio Henrique 13. Lucao 16. Tito 20. Valdenilson 22. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Rodrigo Alves ⚽,
14', Madison 🟨,
16', Gustavo Crecci 🟨,
29', Madison ↓, Pedro Felipe ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Iago Silva ↑,
46', Tarcisio ↓, Tito ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Alisson ⚽,
59', Kelvyn ↓, Matheus Juliao ↑,
65', Renatinho ↓, Everton Kanela ↑,
70', Maikon Aquino ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
70', Gabriel Zeca ↓, Welder ↑,
79', Cleiton ↓, Valdenilson ↑,
88', Rodrigo Alves ↓, Elimar ↑,
88', Leilson ↓, Caio Felipe ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 3.

Confiança has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Itabaiana is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Confiança is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Confiança won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.26	Botafogo PB - Confiança	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	Confiança - Barra Santa Catarina	1:2 ✺
28.06.26	Ypiranga - Confiança	1:1 ✺
22.06.26	Confiança - Guarani	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Volta Redonda - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LLTWL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
13.07.26	Itabaiana - Brusque	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Amazonas - Itabaiana	0:2 ✺
27.06.26	Itabaiana - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Anápolis - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Itabaiana - Ituano	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.04.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2
25.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:2
08.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
29.03.25	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1
22.03.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	1:2

Confiança - Itabaiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide