Match Info

Date: 16 April 2022, Saturday


	Corinthians		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	6.5
	1.57	3.5	7.5
	1.52	3.65	7
	1.54	3.65	6.4
	1.54	3.73	8.19
	1.38	3.9	10	Watch
	1.55	3.82	7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.69)	3.72 ↑ (3.24)	7.51 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
62%

Draw
25.4%

Avaí
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

28.7%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

28%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Corinthians's performance.

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Corinthians that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Corinthians - Avaí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Corinthians has the most likely position - 3 (9.18%), has project points - 60, has currently - 3, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

Avaí has the most likely position - 20 (11.8%), has project points - 42, has currently - 3, has a chance of relegated (40%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 45, small importance 28, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Corinthians won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Avaí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Avaí have a series of home games.

In this match Corinthians is indisputable favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Corinthians won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Corinthians won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
13.04.22	Corinthians - Deportivo Cali	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.04.22	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.04.22	Always Ready - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
27.03.22	São Paulo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
24.03.22	Corinthians - Guarani	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLLW
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie A
10.04.22	Avaí - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
19.03.22	Brusque - Avaí	0:0 ✺
13.03.22	Avaí - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.03.22	Avaí - Ceilândia	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
05.03.22	Avaí - Hercílio Luz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.11.19	Corinthians - Avaí	3:0
25.08.19	Avaí - Corinthians	1:1
11.11.17	Corinthians - Avaí	1:0
19.07.17	Avaí - Corinthians	0:0
06.12.15	Corinthians - Avaí	1:1
16.08.15	Avaí - Corinthians	1:2

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