Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 12

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Murilo V. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, PlayPlus, R7, Sky+, TV Record, UOL Play, Vivo Play, Zapping
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Corinthians		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.6	3.55	5.2
	1.58	4	6.13
	1.57	3.84	5.91	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5
	1.57	3.82	5.42
	1.6	3.55	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.5)	3.75 ↓ (3.95)	5.55 ↓ (5.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
58.6%

Draw
24.7%

Guarani
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

23.3%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

22.3%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Corinthians, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Corinthians - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: Corinthians will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 33. Leo Mana 3. Torres F. 25. Caca 21. Matheus Bidu 35. Charles Rigon 7. Maycon 11. Angel Romero 77. Igor Coronado 43. Talles Magno 22. Hernandez H.	1. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 2. Lucas Justen 3. Raphael 4. Lucao 6. Emerson 10. Anderson Leite 5. Mateus Sarara 8. Caio Mello 7. Rafael Bilu 9. Joao Marcelo 11. Joao Victor
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 27. Breno Bidon 10. Depay M. 8. Garro R. 56. Gui Negao 13. Gustavo Henrique 46. Hugo 47. Joao Pedro 59. Joao Vitor 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 37. Ryan 9. Yuri Alberto	19. Deni Junior 12. Emerson Junior (G) 20. Giva 21. Isaque 17. Luiz Miguel 18. Matheus Regis 23. Nascimento R. 13. Pedro Manoel 14. Titi 16. Vinicius Kaue 22. Yan Henrique 15. Yuji
Coaches
Diaz R.	Mauricio Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Angel Romero ⚽, Matheus Bidu (A),
43', 1 - 1, Rafael Bilu ⚽, Joao Victor (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 2, Joao Marcelo ⚽,
59', Talles Magno ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
60', Maycon ↓, Breno Bidon ↑,
60', Igor Coronado ↓, Garro R. ↑,
60', Charles Rigon ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
60', Hernandez H. ↓, Depay M. ↑,
67', Rafael Bilu ↓, Matheus Regis ↑,
67', 2 - 2, Angel Romero ⚽, Garro R. (A),
69', Anderson Leite 🟨,
72', Lucas Justen ↓, Yan Henrique ↑,
73', Anderson Leite ↓, Yuji ↑,
74', Lucao 🟨,
81', Joao Marcelo ↓, Deni Junior ↑,
81', Caio Mello ↓, Nascimento R. ↑,
90+4', Yan Henrique 🟨,

Preview

Corinthians is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Corinthians is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Guarani is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Corinthians could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Corinthians is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Corinthians won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 1.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Corinthians won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
19.02.25	Universidad Central - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.25	Portuguesa - Corinthians	2:2 ✺
12.02.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Corinthians - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTWWT
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.25	Guarani - Velo Clube	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	São Bernardo - Guarani	1:0 ✺
13.02.25	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	Guarani - Água Santa	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.24	Corinthians - Guarani	1:0
24.01.23	Corinthians - Guarani	2:1
24.03.22	Corinthians - Guarani	2:1 penalties
11.04.21	Guarani - Corinthians	0:1

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