Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Corinthians		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2	3.25	3.9
	2.02	3.2	3.7
	2.08	3.32	4.09
	2.14	3.10	3.66	Watch
	2.04	3.38	4.09	Watch
	1.96	3.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.17)	3.25 ↑ (3.21)	3.91 ↑ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
46.6%

Draw
29.2%

Mirassol
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

29.6%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

29.8%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Corinthians - Mirassol Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Corinthians (3.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mirassol (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Corinthians will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Corinthians will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Mirassol (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 47. Joao Pedro 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 14. Raniele 70. Martinez J. 7. Maycon (C) 27. Breno Bidon 56. Gui Negao 9. Yuri Alberto	22. Walter (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 3. Jemmes 34. Joao Victor 6. Reinaldo 21. Jose Aldo 8. Danielzinho (C) 12. Guilherme 11. Negueba 17. Cristian Renato 96. Carlos Eduardo
Substitutes
49. Andre 11. Angel Romero 26. Angileri F. 25. Caca 10. Depay M. 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 46. Hugo 31. Kayke 37. Ryan 3. Torres F. 29. Vitinho	77. Alesson 23. Alex Muralha (G) 91. Chico 10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 44. Gabriel 99. Maceio 18. Matheus Bianqui 78. Renato Marques 5. Roni 7. Shaylon 41. Yago Felipe
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Reinaldo 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Maycon (Pen),
45+1', Jose Aldo 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Lucas Ramon ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
55', Joao Pedro 🟨,
58', Hugo Souza 🟨,
59', Negueba ↓, Alesson ↑,
59', Cristian Renato ↓, Chico ↑,
62', Gui Negao ↓, Vitinho ↑,
62', Martinez J. ↓, Andre ↑,
72', 2 - 0, Yuri Alberto ⚽, Vitinho (A),
73', Breno Bidon ↓, Depay M. ↑,
75', Guilherme ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
75', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Maceio ↑,
84', Matheus Bidu ↓, Angileri F. ↑,
84', Vitinho ↓, Ryan ↑,
90+5', 3 - 0, Andre ⚽, Yuri Alberto (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Corinthians is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Corinthians: Andre Ramalho (Inactive) Carrillo A. (Inactive) Charles Rigon (Knee Injury) Depay M. (Muscle Injury) Garro R. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Mirassol: Edson Carioca (Injury) Neto Moura (Yellow Cards)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:6. (average 1.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 1.8:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Internacional RS - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Corinthians - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TLLWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Mirassol - Juventude	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:3 ✺
13.09.25	Grêmio - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Mirassol - Corinthians	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.25	Corinthians - Mirassol	2:0
19.02.23	Corinthians - Mirassol	3:0
10.02.22	Corinthians - Mirassol	2:1
23.03.21	Mirassol - Corinthians	0:1
02.08.20	Corinthians - Mirassol	1:0
26.01.20	Mirassol - Corinthians	1:1

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