Match Info

Serie B - Round 3

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Gomes T. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Disney+


	Coritiba		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.75	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.65	2.75	3.05
	2.75	2.82	3.19
	2.68	2.69	3.13	Watch
	2.3	3	3.3
	2.62	2.74	3.1	Watch
	2.65	2.75	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.26)	2.81 ↓ (3.03)	3.14 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
36.6%

Draw
33.4%

Grêmio Novorizontino
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

31%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

30.3%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Coritiba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	77.8%	0%

Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Pedro Rangel (G) 73. Zeca 3. Maicon 15. Guilherme Vargas 26. Bruno Melo 19. Gomez S. (C) 8. Filipe Machado 10. Josue 7. Nicolas Careca 91. Gustavo Coutinho 11. Lucas Ronier	1. Airton (G) 2. Rodrigo Soares 3. Rafael Donato 4. Patrick 88. Patrick Brey 5. Jean Irmer 6. Luis Oyama 26. Dantas 10. Matheus Frizzo 30. Waguininho 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
67. Benassi (G) 27. de Pena C. 22. Felipe Guimaraes 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 38. Geovane Meurer 16. Joao Vitor 9. Junior Brumado 97. Ruan Assis 23. Tiago Coser 36. Vini Paulista 70. Wallisson	17. Bruno Jose 47. Fabio Matheus 31. Igor Formiga 93. Jordi (G) 38. Leo Natel 19. Leo Tocantins 9. Lucca 28. Marlon 99. Nathan Fogaca 7. Pablo Dyego 33. Renato
Coaches
Moura Pinheiro M.	Ben-Hur

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Filipe Machado 🟨,
30', Nicolas Careca ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,
38', Dantas 🟥,
45', Guilherme Vargas 🟨,
45+2', Robson (Pen),
45+3', Patrick Brey 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Filipe Machado ↓, Junior Brumado ↑,
65', Jean Irmer 🟨,
69', Robson ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
69', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Marlon ↑,
70', Gomez S. ↓, Geovane ↑,
70', Bruno Melo ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
70', Lucas Ronier ↓, Wallisson ↑,
85', Luis Oyama ↓, Fabio Matheus ↑,
90', Patrick Brey 🟨,
90+1', Rodrigo Soares ↓, Renato ↑,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Recently Novorizontino have a series of guest games.

Coritiba will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Coritiba: Alex Silva (Red Card) Dellatorre (Inactive) Everaldo (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Inactive) Rodrigo Moledo (Inactive)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Airton (Inactive) Vitinho (Inactive) Willian Farias (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Cesar Martins (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Coritiba won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.25	Chapecoense - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
09.03.25	Coritiba - Maringá	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Ceilândia - Coritiba	3:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.25	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWTLL
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.03.25	Operário Ltda - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.03.25	São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.09.24	Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2
17.05.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Coritiba	0:0

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