Match Info

Serie B - Round 1

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Coritiba		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.7	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.5	4.6
	1.73	3.6	4.7
	1.71	3.52	5.07	Watch
	1.73	3.5	5
	1.73	3.6	4.88	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.73)	3.57 ↓ (3.6)	4.81 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
54.5%

Draw
26.1%

Vila Nova
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

25.5%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

27.6%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Coritiba - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Coritiba (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Pedro Rangel (G) 20. Alex Silva 15. Guilherme Vargas 26. Bruno Melo 73. Zeca 8. Filipe Machado 19. Gomez S. (C) 10. Josue 7. Nicolas Careca 91. Gustavo Coutinho 11. Lucas Ronier	99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Walisson Maia 4. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 27. Igor Henrique 15. Paulinho 17. Jean Mota 29. Junior Todinho 19. Gabriel Silva
Substitutes
67. Benassi (G) 49. Dellatorre 27. de Pena C. 22. Felipe Guimaraes 2. Fracchia M. 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 3. Maicon 97. Ruan Assis 23. Tiago Coser 36. Vini Paulista 70. Wallisson	14. Bernardo Schappo 20. Bruno Mendes 10. Diego Torres 9. Gabriel Poveda 6. Igor Inocencio 1. Kaua P. (G) 96. Labandeira F. 8. Ralf 23. Ruan Ribeiro
Coaches
Moura Pinheiro M.	Rafael Lacerda

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Alex Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Filipe Machado ↓, Geovane ↑,
61', Nicolas Careca ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
63', Gabriel Silva ↓, Ruan Ribeiro ↑,
65', Ruan Ribeiro 🟨,
69', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Dellatorre ↑,
73', Jean Mota ↓, Diego Torres ↑,
74', Junior Todinho ↓, Gabriel Poveda ↑,
77', Walisson Maia 🟨,
79', Gomez S. ↓, Wallisson ↑,
80', Lucas Ronier ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,
84', Paulinho ↓, Ralf ↑,
84', Igor Henrique ↓, Labandeira F. ↑,
86', Josue 🟨,
90+3', Ruan Ribeiro 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 0, Josue (Pen),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 3.

Recent matches Coritiba is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vila Nova is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vila Nova could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Coritiba is a favorite.

There will not play in Vila Nova: Guilherme Parede (Knee Injury) Marcondes (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:5 (average 1.6:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Coritiba won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:1 (average 1.5:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
09.03.25	Coritiba - Maringá	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Ceilândia - Coritiba	3:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.25	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Coritiba	0:2 ✺
11.02.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLLWT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
30.03.25	Vila Nova - Anápolis	3:0 ✺
23.03.25	Anápolis - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
16.03.25	Vila Nova - Goiás	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.03.25	Vila Nova - Rio Branco-VN	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
09.03.25	Goiás - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.10.24	Vila Nova - Coritiba	0:3
29.06.24	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:1
17.09.21	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:0
19.06.21	Vila Nova - Coritiba	0:1
19.10.19	Vila Nova - Coritiba	2:2
23.07.19	Coritiba - Vila Nova	2:0
08.09.18	Vila Nova - Coritiba	2:1

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