Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 March 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 3
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.5	7	Watch
	1.58	3.45	5.6
	1.58	3.7	6.52
	1.61	3.55	6.14	Watch
	1.6	3.5	5.5
	1.6	3.56	7.12	Watch
	1.58	3.45	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.53)	3.53 ↓ (3.7)	6.21 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
58.6%

Draw
26.4%

Grêmio Novorizontino
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

24.8%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

27.5%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 28. Franco A. 5. Robert Arboleda 6. Cedric 25. Alisson 20. Marcos Antonio 8. Oscar 13. Diaz E. 7. Lucas Moura 9. Jonathan Calleri	1. Airton (G) 37. Cesar Martins 3. Rafael Donato (C) 4. Patrick 2. Rodrigo Soares 5. Jean Irmer 6. Luis Oyama 10. Matheus Frizzo 88. Patrick Brey 11. Robson 38. Leo Natel
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 21. Bobadilla D. 33. Erick 43. Felipe Negrucci 11. Ferreira 2. Igor Vinicius 93. Jandrei (G) 10. Luciano 36. Patryck 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 18. Wendell	20. Airton 17. Bruno Jose 26. Dantas 47. Fabio Matheus 31. Igor Formiga 93. Jordi (G) 28. Marlon 7. Pablo Dyego 33. Renato 16. Reverson 30. Waguininho 8. Willian Farias
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Patrick 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leo Natel ↓, Waguininho ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Lucas Moura (A),
70', Jean Irmer ↓, Marlon ↑,
70', Patrick ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
80', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
80', Marcos Antonio ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
80', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
83', Rodrigo Soares ↓, Airton ↑,
83', Luis Oyama ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
88', Oscar ↓, Ferreira ↑,
90+2', Patrick Brey 🟥,
90+3', Rafael Donato 🟨,
90+7', Robson 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 1.

Recent matches São Paulo is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Novorizontino is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

São Paulo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match São Paulo is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:7 (average 1.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	São Bernardo - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
19.02.25	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	São Paulo - Velo Clube	3:3 ✺
10.02.25	São Paulo - Internacional de Limeira	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLTTT
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
17.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	2:1 ✺
13.02.25	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.03.24	São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 penalties
13.03.21	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Paulo	2:1
03.02.20	São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
24.01.19	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Paulo	0:3
20.01.18	São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0
25.02.17	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Paulo	2:2
24.02.16	São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0

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