Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 17

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: de Lima M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Coritiba		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.8	7	Watch
	1.58	3.4	6
	1.58	3.45	6.1
	1.5	3.97	8.01
	1.56	3.60	6.60	Watch
	1.65	3.4	5.8
	1.62	3.55	6.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.66)	3.6 ↑ (3.51)	6.52 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
59.6%

Draw
26%

Paysandu
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

26.6%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

25.1%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Coritiba - Paysandu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Coritiba (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (6.68) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH +0.75 - Paysandu (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Coritiba will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Coritiba will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Coritiba (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Paysandu (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 73. Zeca 15. Guilherme Aquino 55. Jacy 26. Bruno Melo 8. Filipe Machado 19. Gomez S. (C) 11. Lucas Ronier 10. Josue 77. Iury Castilho 49. Dellatorre	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 21. Bryan Borges 35. Mauricio Antonio 5. Novillo J. 16. Reverson 29. Anderson Leite 28. Leandro Vilela (C) 20. Denner 10. Mauricio Garcez 11. Marlon Douglas 9. Diogo Oliveira
Substitutes
20. Alex Silva 67. Benassi (G) 25. Clayson 27. de Pena C. 37. Everaldo 9. Gustavo Coutinho 16. Joao Almeida 7. Nicolas Careca 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 23. Tiago Coser 36. Vini Paulista 70. Wallisson	92. Benitez J. 2. Edilson 34. Lucca Carvalho 30. Marcelinho 13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 96. Matheus Vargas 94. Patric Calmon 27. Ramon Martinez 25. Ronaldo Henrique 99. Vinicius Faria
Coaches
Mozart	Claudinei Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
25', Mauricio Antonio 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Josue ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Mauricio Garcez ⚽,
31', 1 - 2, Diogo Oliveira ⚽, Reverson (A),
33', Iury Castilho ↓, Clayson ↑,
44', 1 - 3, Diogo Oliveira ⚽, Reverson (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Zeca ↓, Alex Silva ↑,
47', Lucas Ronier 🟨,
57', 2 - 3, Josue (Pen),
67', Gomez S. ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
69', 2 - 4, Marlon Douglas (Pen),
75', Filipe Machado ↓, Gustavo Coutinho ↑,
75', Lucas Ronier ↓, Everaldo ↑,
76', Denner ↓, Matheus Vargas ↑,
76', Marlon Douglas ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
77', Everaldo 🟨,
79', Clayson 🟨,
80', Anderson Leite ↓, Ramon Martinez ↑,
85', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
85', Leandro Vilela ↓, Ronaldo Henrique ↑,
87', 2 - 5, Mauricio Garcez ⚽, Ronaldo Henrique (A),
90+4', Vinicius Faria 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 1.

Coritiba has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paysandu is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Coritiba is the team to beat.

There will not play in Coritiba: Alex Silva (Inactive) Maicon (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Paysandu: Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Edinho (Knee Injury) Rossi (Yellow Cards) Thalisson (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Rodrigo Moledo (Knock)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Delvalle P. (Ankle Injury) Matheus Vargas (Inactive) Quintana Y. (Injury)

We predict that Coritiba will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
10.07.25	CRB Maceio - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
04.07.25	Coritiba - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
22.06.25	Coritiba - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Atlético Goianiense - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WWWWT
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.25	Paysandu - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
05.07.25	Avaí - Paysandu	0:0 ✺
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Remo - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
13.06.25	Paysandu - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.10.24	Paysandu - Coritiba	2:1
07.07.24	Coritiba - Paysandu	1:1
27.10.18	Paysandu - Coritiba	1:1
04.07.18	Coritiba - Paysandu	2:0
Copa do Brasil
13.08.14	Paysandu - Coritiba	2:1
31.07.14	Coritiba - Paysandu	2:0

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