Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 12

Date: 13 June 2025, Friday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Vargas A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Paysandu		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	4	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.8
	2.02	3.1	3.8
	2.17	3.13	3.83
	1.8	3.41	4.24	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4.4
	1.99	3.18	4.13	Watch
	2.02	3.1	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.77)	3.17 ↓ (3.29)	4 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
47.1%

Draw
29.5%

Botafogo SP
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

28.3%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

27.6%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Paysandu - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Botafogo SP will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paysandu: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Botafogo SP (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 6. Thalisson 4. Luan Freitas 5. Novillo J. 94. Patric Calmon 28. Leandro Vilela 96. Matheus Vargas 14. Ronaldo Henrique 11. Marlon Douglas 77. Rossi (C) 92. Benitez J.	1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Jeferson 3. Ericson 4. Rafael Milhorim 6. Risso G. 8. Abdulai S. 5. Gabriel Bispo 10. Maciel L. (C) 7. Jonathan Cafu 9. Alexandre Jesus 11. Robinho
Substitutes
8. Andre Lima 20. Denner 27. Diogo Oliveira 22. Eliel 31. Iago Hass (G) 36. Kevyn 30. Marcelinho 10. Mauricio Garcez 19. Petterson Novaes 16. Reverson 99. Vinicius Faria 26. Wendel	14. Carlao 18. Dramisino A. 15. Edson 17. Jefferson Nem 12. Joao Carlos (G) 19. Pablo Thomaz 16. Rafael Castro 13. Wallison 20. Willian Lins
Coaches
Claudinei Oliveira	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Thalisson 🟨,
43', Rafael Milhorim 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Denner ↑,
46', Patric Calmon ↓, Reverson ↑,
52', Rossi 🟨,
56', Abdulai S. 🟨,
62', Benitez J. ↓, Diogo Oliveira ↑,
63', Abdulai S. ↓, Dramisino A. ↑,
67', Matheus Vargas ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
69', Jonathan Cafu 🟨,
73', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Jefferson Nem ↑,
74', Marlon Douglas ↓, Mauricio Garcez ↑,
82', Robinho ↓, Pablo Thomaz ↑,
84', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
87', Ericson 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 0, Leandro Vilela ⚽, Denner (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Paysandu has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Botafogo SP's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Paysandu is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
06.06.25	Cuiabá - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
02.06.25	Paysandu - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
25.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Bahia - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
05.06.25	Botafogo SP - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
29.05.25	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
26.05.25	Botafogo SP - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
12.05.25	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.08.24	Botafogo SP - Paysandu	1:1
27.04.24	Paysandu - Botafogo SP	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
08.05.22	Paysandu - Botafogo SP	4:1

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