Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 8

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.2	4.75	Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.9
	1.92	3.25	3.95	Watch
	1.97	3.33	4.59
	1.92	3.36	4.39	Watch
	1.91	3	4.2
	1.94	3.33	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.12)	3.25 ↓ (3.36)	4.31 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
49%

Draw
29.1%

Coritiba
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.2%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.6%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coritiba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 4. Arthur Dias 33. Aguirre F. 37. Esquivel L. 29. Benavidez G. 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo 7. Mendoza S. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 20. Julimar 9. Viveros K.	12. Pedro Rangel (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 3. Maicon 55. Jacy 26. Bruno Melo 19. Gomez S. (C) 8. Wallisson 11. Lucas Ronier 10. Josue 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha
Substitutes
47. Chiqueti 26. Claudinho 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 10. Zapelli B.	28. Fabinho 6. Felipe Jonatan 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 13. Keiller (G) 20. Keno 7. Lavega J. 21. Thiago Santos 23. Tiago Coser 2. Tinga 36. Vini Paulista 29. Willian Oliveira
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Dudu Kogitzki ⚽, Julimar (A),
45', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Portilla J. ↑,
45+6', Breno Lopes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 2 - 0, Viveros K. ⚽, Benavidez G. (A),
58', Breno Lopes ↓, Lavega J. ↑,
58', Lucas Ronier ↓, Fabinho ↑,
61', Wallisson 🟨,
68', Pedro Rocha ↓, Keno ↑,
68', Wallisson ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
74', Julimar ↓, Chiqueti ↑,
74', Esquivel L. ↓, Gilberto Junior ↑,
87', Bruno Melo ↓, Felipe Jonatan ↑,
87', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
90+5', Maicon 🟥,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 0.

Athletico PR is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Coritiba has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.

There will not play in Coritiba: Benassi (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Injury) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Teran C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Lucas Crepaldi (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Athletico-PR: 0.33% Coritiba: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37:47	-10	38

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.69%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
18.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 ✺
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTLL
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
18.03.26	Mirassol - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Coritiba - Remo	1:0 ✺
11.03.26	Corinthians - Coritiba	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Coritiba - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
21.02.26	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
17.01.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.25	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	0:0
28.06.25	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
25.01.25	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	0:0
18.02.24	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.23	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
14.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	3:2

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