Match Info

Date: 27 August 2022, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Referee: Lima F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Covilhã		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.2
	3.2	2.87	2.2
	3.1	2.9	2.33
	3.25	3.05	2.27
	3.57	3.11	2.32
	3.2	2.8	2.25
	3.18	3.1	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.6)	2.98 ↓ (3.02)	2.26 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
28.3%

Draw
30.9%

Penafiel
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

31%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

29.9%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Covilhã's form might have worsened.

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penafiel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Covilhã, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Penafiel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	40%	30%

Covilhã - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Covilhã will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Penafiel will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Covilhã could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 4 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 16-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
19.08.22	Tondela - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
13.08.22	Covilhã - Feirense	0:2 ✺
07.08.22	Porto B - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Covilhã - Académica Petróleos	2:2 ✺
27.07.22	Portimonense - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLWTL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
22.08.22	Penafiel - BSAD	3:3 ✺
15.08.22	Mafra - Penafiel	3:0 ✺
08.08.22	Penafiel - Leixões	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Penafiel - Vizela	2:0 ✺
20.07.22	Marítimo - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
20.02.22	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1
17.09.21	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:0
11.03.21	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:2
14.09.20	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:0
02.11.19	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:0
23.02.19	Penafiel - Covilhã	0:0
06.10.18	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:0

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