Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 16

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Marítimo (Funchal)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)


	Marítimo		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.9	6
	1.5	4.05	5.9
	1.59	3.91	5.55
	1.51	3.92	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.6)	3.95 ↑ (3.9)	5.96 ↑ (5.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
61%

Draw
23.5%

Penafiel
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.9%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

23.1%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Marítimo - Penafiel Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Samu (G) 2. Igor Juliao 5. Madsen N. 44. Correia R. (C) 23. Henrique P. 14. Raphael Guzzo 18. Danilovic V. 21. Bouzaidi S. 28. Carlos Daniel 10. Tejon M. 3. Butzke A.	32. Femenias J. (G) 22. Xico 4. Miguel J. (C) 33. Moreira C. 2. lano Imbene 27. Negrao G. 17. Kebe I. 8. Reko 37. Davo 20. Santos A. 19. Alcaina R.
Substitutes
6. Andrade R. 8. Cruz M. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 9. Elis A. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 7. Pena Zauner E. 4. Santos Junior E. A. 1. Tabuaco G. (G) 79. Tavares M.	75. Alloh T. 88. Alves R. 31. Balde M. (G) 36. Dani Molina 3. Gustavo Fernandes 61. Injai M. 21. Pedro Sa 9. Suker H. 7. Vieira P.
Coaches
Emanuel Soares Matos V.	Aira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Tejon M. ⚽,
28', lano Imbene 🟨,
33', Madsen N. 🟨,
40', Kebe I. 🟥,
44', 1 - 1, Reko (Pen),
45', Raphael Guzzo ↓, Cruz M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Negrao G. ↓, Pedro Sa ↑,
46', lano Imbene ↓, Alloh T. ↑,
52', Butzke A. 🟨,
52', 2 - 1, Carlos Daniel ⚽, Butzke A. (A),
64', Alcaina R. ↓, Suker H. ↑,
70', Butzke A. ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
81', Igor Juliao 🟨,
81', Davo ↓, Alves R. ↑,
81', Santos A. ↓, Vieira P. ↑,
84', Carlos Daniel ↓, Gomes Aguiar F. T. ↑,
85', Igor Juliao ↓, Andrade R. ↑,
85', Bouzaidi S. ↓, Elis A. ↑,
89', Gomes Aguiar F. T. 🟨,
90+2', Suker H. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Penafiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Marítimo is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marítimo won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
03.11.25	Oliveirense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
30.10.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:3 ✺
19.10.25	Porto B - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Marítimo - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLLT
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
08.11.25	Penafiel - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Vizela - Penafiel	1:3 ✺
26.10.25	Farense - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Penafiel - Feirense	1:2 ✺
05.10.25	Benfica B - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.6 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
29.03.25	Penafiel - Marítimo	0:1
02.11.24	Marítimo - Penafiel	1:2
05.05.24	Penafiel - Marítimo	0:1
23.12.23	Marítimo - Penafiel	0:0
Club Friendly
20.07.22	Marítimo - Penafiel	1:1
Taça de Portugal
23.11.20	Penafiel - Marítimo	2:3 ET
Portuguese League Cup
21.12.19	Marítimo - Penafiel	0:0

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