Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 29

Date: 14 April 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Lima F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Mafra		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.88
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.46	3.15	2.9
	2.47	2.99	3.07	Watch
	2.4	2.9	2.9
	2.49	3.08	3	Watch
	2.46	3.15	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.41)	3.04 ↓ (3.08)	2.92 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
38%

Draw
30.4%

Penafiel
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

30.2%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

27.7%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Mafra - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mafra: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Penafiel (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mafra will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 3 - 75%). Penafiel (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fraisl M. (C) 4. Passi B. 29. Rossi R. 66. Capitao D. 14. Alves K. 9. Nibe A. 80. Goncalves V. 5. Beni D. 95. Rochez B. 90. Etim F. 8. Lucas Gabriel	1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 68. Maga 4. Miguel J. (C) 44. Pereira R. 14. Pereira B. 88. Ewerton 8. Reko 34. Ze Leite 30. Silva A. 77. Olamilekan Fatai S. 75. Robinho
Substitutes
60. Barros G. 16. Djabi A. 10. Fale M. 19. Iheanacho S. 17. Kolawole J. 7. Matos R. 35. Monteiro V. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 30. Ugboh M. (G)	31. Balde M. (G) 21. Batista D. 19. Chico Teixeira 3. Gustavo Fernandes 27. Negrao G. 13. Pinheiro Edu 20. Rodrigues T. 10. Silva J. 7. Vieira P.
Coaches
Alves P.	Cristovao H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Ze Leite ⚽,
25', 0 - 2, Robinho (Pen),
28', Rochez B. 🟨,
29', Nibe A. 🟨,
31', Rossi R. 🟨,
32', Alves P. 🟨,
43', 1 - 2, Etim F. ⚽, Goncalves V. (A),
45+1', 2 - 2, Etim F. ⚽, Lucas Gabriel (A),
45+3', Olamilekan Fatai S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Beni D. 🟨,
56', Ze Leite 🟨,
56', Robinho 🟨,
61', 3 - 2, Nibe A. ⚽, Rochez B. (A),
65', Olamilekan Fatai S. ↓, Vieira P. ↑,
68', 4 - 2, Rochez B. ⚽, Lucas Gabriel (A),
70', Lucas Gabriel ↓, Matos R. ↑,
77', Ewerton ↓, Rodrigues T. ↑,
77', Pereira B. ↓, Gustavo Fernandes ↑,
80', Robinho 🟨,
83', Rochez B. ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
83', Nibe A. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
88', Reko ↓, Pinheiro Edu ↑,
88', Ze Leite ↓, Silva J. ↑,
89', Capitao D. ↓, Rodrigo Freitas ↑,
90', Etim F. ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mafra won 1.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Mafra could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Mafra won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 14:16 (average 0.9:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Mafra won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:2 (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
06.04.25	Académico de Viseu - Mafra	3:1 ✺
31.03.25	Mafra - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Leiria - Mafra	3:1 ✺
09.03.25	Mafra - Porto B	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Alverca - Mafra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLTL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
05.04.25	Felgueiras - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Penafiel - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Académico de Viseu - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Penafiel - Alverca	3:2 ✺
02.03.25	Leiria - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
01.12.24	Penafiel - Mafra	1:1
09.03.24	Mafra - Penafiel	0:1
27.10.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0
05.02.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0
15.08.22	Mafra - Penafiel	3:0
26.02.22	Mafra - Penafiel	1:1
03.10.21	Penafiel - Mafra	2:1

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