Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 20

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6


	Penafiel		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.88	2.7
	2.3	3.1	2.75
	2.58	2.98	2.82
	2.67	3.09	2.88
	2.6	3.04	2.85	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.75
	2.65	2.98	2.81	Watch
	2.57	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)	2.98 ↓ (3.11)	2.8 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Penafiel
36.1%

Draw
30.9%

Leixões
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

30%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

30.1%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Penafiel - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Leixões will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Penafiel (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 27. Negrao G. 3. Mere J. 5. Sanchez J. 33. Moreira C. 14. Pereira B. 6. Carbonell A. 21. Pedro Sa (C) 88. Alves R. 20. Santos A. 28. Schutte R.	51. Stefanovic I. (C) 63. Faria H. 5. Naldo 4. Rafael Santos 11. Agra S. 66. Balde A. 22. Araujo C. 15. Simaozinho 7. Werton 35. Rochez B. 10. Paulite
Substitutes
19. Alcaina R. 31. Balde M. (G) 37. Davo 61. Injai M. 17. Kebe I. 2. lano Imbene 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 95. Sery J.	12. Assuncao J. 36. Dodo D. 13. Evrard Zag 18. Kanuric B. 1. Morro M. (G) 8. Neto 94. Rajani M. 30. Serif N. 88. Yahaya A.
Coaches
Aira J.	Fangueiro C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Naldo 🟨,
44', Carbonell A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Carbonell A. ↓, Kebe I. ↑,
59', Schutte R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
61', Paulite 🟨,
64', Negrao G. ↓, Injai M. ↑,
65', Paulite ↓, Evrard Zag ↑,
73', Mere J. ↓, Davo ↑,
73', Santos A. ↓, lano Imbene ↑,
77', Werton ↓, Rajani M. ↑,
77', Simaozinho ↓, Serif N. ↑,
88', Araujo C. ↓, Yahaya A. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 3.

Penafiel is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leixões's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13:5	8	13
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Leixões - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.74%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
25.01.26	Oliveirense - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Penafiel - Portimonense	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Penafiel - Torreense	1:0 ✺
12.12.25	Porto B - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLWL
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
24.01.26	Leixões - Benfica B	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Felgueiras - Leixões	0:1 ✺
08.01.26	Lusitânia - Leixões	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Leixões - Marítimo	1:4 ✺
14.12.25	Portimonense - Leixões	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
24.08.25	Leixões - Penafiel	3:2
27.04.25	Leixões - Penafiel	3:1
14.12.24	Penafiel - Leixões	3:1
21.01.24	Leixões - Penafiel	0:1
13.08.23	Penafiel - Leixões	3:0
29.01.23	Leixões - Penafiel	2:1
08.08.22	Penafiel - Leixões	0:0

Upcoming Matches