Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 27

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Brazao M. (Por)


	Penafiel		Vizela

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.25
	2.6	3	2.4
	3.05	3.1	2.3
	3.06	3.25	2.47
	3.05	3.12	2.4	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.3
	3.12	3.12	2.34	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.2)	3.09 ↓ (3.3)	2.33 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Penafiel
30.7%

Draw
29.8%

Vizela
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

27.8%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

27.5%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	50%	37.5%

Penafiel - Vizela Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Vizela will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 5. Sanchez J. 4. Miguel J. (C) 33. Moreira C. 7. Anzai S. 6. Carbonell A. 17. Kebe I. 14. Pereira B. 20. Santos A. 9. Rodrigues D. 37. Davo	1. Gomis A. (G) 77. Jojo 13. Rocha L. 37. Sampaio J. 20. Godwin O. 22. Busnic A. 5. Moha Moukhliss 21. Ramos R. 24. Morschel H. (C) 36. Lacava M. 23. Fortune Y.
Substitutes
19. Alcaina R. 75. Alloh T. 88. Alves R. 2. lano Imbene 27. Negrao G. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 21. Pedro Sa 8. Reko 95. Sery J.	8. Bastunov A. 18. Demchenko N. 45. Ivanov H. 6. Jota Goncalves 29. Kitala Y. 7. Loppy D. 14. Pierre L. 25. Ruly (G) 11. Thio
Coaches
Aira J.	Ramirez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Santos A. ↓, Negrao G. ↑,
57', 0 - 1, Sampaio J. ⚽,
64', Rodrigues D. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
64', Kebe I. ↓, Reko ↑,
68', Morschel H. 🟨,
73', Pereira B. ↓, lano Imbene ↑,
74', Pedro Sa ↓, Alves R. ↑,
76', Ramos R. ↓, Loppy D. ↑,
84', Morschel H. ↓, Thio ↑,
85', Lacava M. ↓, Bastunov A. ↑,
90+1', Moha Moukhliss ↓, Ivanov H. ↑,
90+2', Thio 🟨,
90+3', Moreira C. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 3.

Recent performances by Penafiel have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vizela is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 2:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13:5	8	13
5	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7:4	3	11

Last Results with these Odds

Penafiel - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 28.62%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
15.03.26	Feirense - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Penafiel - Farense	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Penafiel - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Felgueiras - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Penafiel - Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LTTTW
- FC Vizela
Portuguese Liga 2
15.03.26	Vizela - Lusitânia	4:3 ✺
08.03.26	Felgueiras - Vizela	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Vizela - Chaves	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Leixões - Vizela	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Vizela - Marítimo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
02.11.25	Vizela - Penafiel	1:3
26.01.25	Penafiel - Vizela	1:1
18.08.24	Vizela - Penafiel	1:2
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Penafiel - Vizela	3:4 penalties
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Penafiel - Vizela	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
16.05.21	Penafiel - Vizela	1:2
16.01.21	Vizela - Penafiel	3:1

Upcoming Matches