Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 17

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.7	5.7
	1.51	4.16	6.05	Watch
	1.49	3.66	6.36
	1.48	3.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.51)	3.82 ↑ (3.78)	6.03 ↑ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
61%

Draw
23.9%

1 Dezembro
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

24%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

22.9%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Belenenses - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 3 - 75%). 1 Dezembro will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Belenenses (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 27. Barros E. 23. Bruninho 7. Eduardo W. 17. Horta Leitao D. 2. Machado J. 21. Morgado T. 4. Nuno Tomas 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 19. Valente A.	1. Duarte F. (G) 13. Bernardo J. 79. Cardoso D. 22. Dias G. 24. Edu 7. Ferreira D. 26. Freitas J. 20. Harramiz S. 85. Infante A. 6. Lima P. 33. Mane L.
Substitutes
22. Bandarra M. 66. Cesinha 13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 53. Dias B. 11. Duda 15. Lucas J. 9. Souza E. 5. Teixeira J.	96. Arroyo J. 19. Dede 44. Gomes C. 39. Karvounis P. 23. Menezes L. 47. Oliveira J. (G) 2. Ramos P. . Tavares L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Morgado T. ⚽,
24', Lima P. 🟨,
37', Freitas J. 🟨,
42', Edu 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Horta Leitao D. ↓, David Rebelo ↑,
62', Harramiz S. ↓, Dede ↑,
64', Ferreira D. ↓, Diogo Ferreira ↑,
67', 🟨,
71', Bruninho ↓, Bandarra M. ↑,
72', Machado J. ↓, Duda ↑,
78', Infante A. ↓, Arroyo J. ↑,
82', Eduardo W. ↓, Souza E. ↑,
82', Paulo D. ↓, Cuca ↑,
87', Lima P. ↓, Menezes L. ↑,
88', Cardoso D. ↓, Tavares L. ↑,

Preview

Belenenses is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

1 Dezembro's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Belenenses is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Belenenses will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
11.01.26	Caldas - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Belenenses - Amora	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Covilhã - Belenenses	0:4 ✺
14.12.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitano GC - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWTW
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
10.01.26	1 Dezembro - Mafra	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	União de Santarém - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Amora - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
26.10.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	0:1
13.04.25	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	2:0
15.02.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	3:1
09.11.24	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:1
10.08.24	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	0:0

Belenenses - 1 Dezembro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide