Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 18

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Cracovia		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.62	3.45	2.45	Watch
	2.72	3.55	2.62
	2.76	3.42	2.51	Watch
	2.63	3.3	2.45
	2.65	3.53	2.55	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.19)	3.41 ↑ (3)	2.51 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cracovia
35.2%

Draw
27.5%

Lech Poznań
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

29.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

29.4%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cracovia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cracovia's performance.

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cracovia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lech Poznań could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	57.1%	35.7%

Cracovia - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Cracovia will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Lech will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Madejski S. (G) 21. Sutalo B. 4. Henriksson G. 66. Wojcik O. 39. Perkovic M. 43. Klich M. 6. Al Ammari A. 11. Maigaard M. (C) 14. Hasic A. 9. Stojilkovic F. 79. Pila D.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 72. Skrzypczak M. 15. Gurgul M. 77. Palma L. 43. Kozubal A. 99. Rodriguez P. 88. Ismaheel T. 9. Ishak M. (C) 14. Bengtsson L.
Substitutes
8. Aleksic M. 15. Glik K. 24. Jugas J. 70. Kameri D. 20. Knap K. 17. Minchev M. 19. Olafsson D. 7. Praszelik M. 10. Rakoczy M. 27. Ravas H. (G) 61. Traore B. 18. Zahiroleslam K.	7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 21. Baranski B. 19. Fiabema B. 8. Gholizadeh A. 20. Gumny R. 56. Lisman K. 4. Moutinho J. 6. Ouma T.
Coaches
Elsner L.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Pila D. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Ishak M. (Penalty Awarded),
39', Rodriguez P. 🟨,
39', Rodriguez P. 🟨,
43', Palma L. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
44', 1 - 1, Maigaard M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Pila D. ↓, Minchev M. ↑,
63', Ismaheel T. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
63', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
72', Al Ammari A. ↓, Praszelik M. ↑,
73', Maigaard M. 🟨,
76', Pereira J. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
76', Bengtsson L. ↓, Gholizadeh A. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Praszelik M. ⚽, Hasic A. (A),
81', 2 - 2, Gholizadeh A. ⚽, Gurgul M. (A),
84', Gurgul M. 🟨,
86', Ouma T. 🟨,
88', Sutalo B. ↓, Zahiroleslam K. ↑,
88', Maigaard M. ↓, Kameri D. ↑,
89', Hasic A. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cracovia won 1.

Cracovia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lech is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lech may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Cracovia: Glik K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery) Walemark P. (Surgery)

There are questionable in Cracovia: Charpentier G. (Inactive) Kakabadze O. (Inactive) Kameri D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lech: Douglas A. (Inactive) Milic A. (Injury) Thordarson G. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cracovia won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cracovia won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.1:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Cracovia - the odds 3.19 are the expected chance of winning is 28.03%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.12.25	Wisła Płock - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Korona Kielce - Cracovia	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Cracovia - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia	3:0 ✺
03.11.25	Cracovia - Zagłębie Lubin	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWLLT
- Lech Poznań
Polish Cup
03.12.25	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Wisła Płock - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Lech Poznań - Lausanne-Sport	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.11.25	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
09.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
18.07.25	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	1:4
21.04.25	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	2:1
19.10.24	Cracovia - Lech Poznań	0:2
28.04.24	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	0:0
28.10.23	Cracovia - Lech Poznań	1:1
06.05.23	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	3:0
23.10.22	Cracovia - Lech Poznań	0:0

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