Match Info

EFL Trophy - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Alexandra Stadium (Crewe)

Referee: Watkins R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Crewe Alexandra		Stockport County

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.6	2.15	Watch
	2.78	3.55	2.22	Watch
	2.87	3.7	2.27
	1.78	4.02	3.84	Watch
	2.88	3.3	2.1
	3.1	3.46	2.05	Watch
	2.8	3.6	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (3.7)	3.6 ↓ (3.74)	2.4 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
34.6%

Draw
26.2%

Stockport County
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

24.5%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

24.9%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crewe Alexandra's performance.

Stockport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stockport County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crewe Alexandra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stockport County than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stockport County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Crewe Alexandra - Stockport County Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Stockport (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Stockport County will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Waller S. (G) 30. Dancey S. 2. Billington L. (C) 22. Croker P. 14. Finney C. 6. Sanders M. H. 34. Armstrong O. 26. O'Reilly T. 20. Agius C. 15. Rankine D. 29. Thibaut A.	34. Addai C. (G) 2. O'Keeffe C. 5. Olowu J. (C) 31. Hunt J. 14. Edun T. 21. Moxon O. 42. Edwards C. 48. Gardner C. 7. Diamond J. 11. Mothersille M. 22. Andresson B.
Substitutes
1. Booth T. (G) 18. Connolly J. 27. Hodkin J. 3. Hutchinson R. 24. March J. 32. Moore L. 36. Tezgel E.	65. Astles J. 27. Bailey O. 56. Cina B. 3. Dodgson O. 10. Fevrier J. 45. Grogan C. 25. Metcalfe M. (G)
Coaches
Bell L.	Challinor D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Thibaut A. ⚽, Agius C. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Andresson B. ⚽, Mothersille M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Edun T. ↓, Dodgson O. ↑,
46', Armstrong O. ↓, Moore L. ↑,
69', O'Reilly T. ↓, March J. ↑,
69', Sanders M. H. ↓, Connolly J. ↑,
70', Andresson B. ↓, Fevrier J. ↑,
70', Mothersille M. ↓, Bailey O. ↑,
79', Finney C. ↓, Hutchinson R. ↑,
87', Edwards C. ↓, Astles J. ↑,
87', Hunt J. ↓, Cina B. ↑,
90+2', Rankine D. ↓, Tezgel E. ↑,
Penalties (1 - 4)
1, Dodgson O. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Tezgel E. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Moxon O. (Penalty Awarded),
2, March J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Fevrier J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Agius C. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Diamond J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Stockport is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crewe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Crewe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Crewe Alexandra - the odds 3.7 are the expected chance of winning is 24.72%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Stockport County - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 50.82%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
29.11.25	Cambridge United - Crewe Alexandra	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Crewe Alexandra - Chesterfield	3:3 ✺
15.11.25	Oldham Athletic - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Burton Albion - Crewe Alexandra	1:3 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Crewe Alexandra - Shrewsbury Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTTWW
- Stockport County
English League One
29.11.25	Stockport County - Barnsley	1:1 ✺
20.11.25	Peterborough United - Stockport County	3:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Stockport County - Wigan Athletic	2:1 penalties ✺
English League One
08.11.25	Stockport County - Luton Town	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Tranmere Rovers - Stockport County	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
12.08.25	Stockport County - Crewe Alexandra	3:1
English League Two
13.02.24	Stockport County - Crewe Alexandra	1:3
24.10.23	Crewe Alexandra - Stockport County	0:2
31.01.23	Crewe Alexandra - Stockport County	1:1
26.12.22	Stockport County - Crewe Alexandra	2:0

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