Match Info

Copa Santa Catarina - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 October 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)


	Criciúma		Joinville

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.05	4.55
	1.81	3.1	4.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.27)	3.08 ↑ (3)	4.52 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
50.5%

Draw
29.5%

Joinville
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

30.3%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

31.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Criciúma's performance.

Joinville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Joinville might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Criciúma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Joinville could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Criciúma - Joinville Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Joinville will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Joinville (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Vinicius Popo ⚽,
7', 1 - 1, Leo Alaba ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
67', 2 - 1, Fabricio ⚽,
81', 2 - 2, Mario Henrique ⚽,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Vinicius Popo (Pen),
1, Fabricio (Pen),
2, Alisson Taddei (Pen),
2, Hiago Alves (Pen),
3, Marquinhos Brazion (Pen),
3, Guilherme Ferreira (Pen),
4, Da Silva (Pen),
4, Davi Gabriel (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 1.

Criciúma has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Joinville is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Criciúma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Criciúma is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 0.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
25.10.25	Criciúma - Goiás	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
21.10.25	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.25	Avaí - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
14.10.25	Criciúma - Caravaggio	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.25	Criciúma - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTWW
- Joinville
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
21.10.25	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
13.10.25	Joinville - Blumenau	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Nação - Joinville	0:1 ✺
01.10.25	Carlos Renaux - Joinville	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
21.10.25	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
02.03.25	Criciúma - Joinville	0:1 penalties
29.01.25	Criciúma - Joinville	3:0
24.02.24	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0
12.02.23	Criciúma - Joinville	1:1
28.03.21	Joinville - Criciúma	1:0
15.03.20	Joinville - Criciúma	0:1

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