Match Info

Serie B - Round 32

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, SportyNet, Xsports


	Ceará		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.40	3.10	2.75
	2.45	3.05	2.8	Watch
	2.64	3.18	2.95
	2.51	3.18	2.85	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.85
	2.47	3.1	2.79
	2.46	3.15	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.48)	3.13 ↑ (3.05)	2.82 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
37.3%

Draw
29.7%

Criciúma
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

30.6%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Ceará - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 15th and 5th in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Recently, Ceará has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Ceará: Ferreira Berrondo M. N. (Inactive) Gabriel Rocha (Foot Injury) Gilmar (Injury) Saulo Mineiro (Inactive) Savio (Inactive) Thalisson (Knee Injury) Wendel Silva (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Criciúma: Gui Lobo (Yellow Cards) Waguininho (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Criciúma: Willean Lepo (Inactive).

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Ceará has recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:12 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ceará against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 6:2 goals (averaging 1.2:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.68%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
03.10.26	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ceará	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTWTL
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
02.10.26	Londrina - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Criciúma - Avaí	3:0 ✺
22.09.26	Criciúma - Operário Ferroviario	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Goianiense - Criciúma	4:0 ✺
08.09.26	Criciúma - Juventude	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
15.06.26	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1
02.09.23	Ceará - Criciúma	1:0
21.05.23	Criciúma - Ceará	1:2
18.11.17	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1
01.08.17	Ceará - Criciúma	3:1
08.11.16	Criciúma - Ceará	2:3
16.07.16	Ceará - Criciúma	1:0

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