Match Info

Catarinense - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)


	Carlos Renaux		Joinville

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.63	3.05	2.67
	2.6	3.06	2.79	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.37	3.09	2.99
	2.54	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.35)	3 (3)	2.77 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Renaux
36.3%

Draw
30.6%

Joinville
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.9%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Renaux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Renaux than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Carlos Renaux - Joinville Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Carlos Renaux (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlos Renaux (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Edson (C) 2. Arouca 11. Cassio 9. Erverson 10. MT 8. Ruan 3. Tiago Santana 5. Vitor Carre 4. Welligton Rocha 7. Willian Mococa 6. Yago Zamora	1. Thiago (G) 5. Felipe Para 8. Fernando Neto 10. Gabriel Terra 4. Gutieri (C) 7. Iago Dias 9. Keke 11. Luizinho 6. Natanael 2. Toty 3. Vitao
Substitutes
22. Eduardo Lopes (G) 17. Gabriel Mello 14. Gerson 15. Keven 13. Rafael Franco 16. Rondinele 19. Tavares 18. Thiago Tinoco 12. Thierry (G) 20. Welves	25. Alyson 19. Da Silva 20. Erick Crispim 16. Jean Mineiro 21. Joao Victor 22. Kaka 17. Klock J. 23. Lucas Lopes 18. Rickson 76. Rodrigo Bazilio (G) 14. Victor Oliveira 15. Yalle

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Welligton Rocha 🟨,
14', Toty 🟨,
17', Keke 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ruan ↓, Keven ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Iago Dias ⚽,
58', Arouca ↓, Tavares ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Erverson ⚽,
71', Erverson ↓, Thiago Tinoco ↑,
71', Luizinho ↓, Da Silva ↑,
71', Fernando Neto ↓, Rickson ↑,
75', Iago Dias ↓, Joao Victor ↑,
77', Willian Mococa ↓, Welves ↑,
77', Yago Zamora ↓, Gerson ↑,
83', Keven 🟨,
83', Felipe Para ↓, Klock J. ↑,
83', Gabriel Terra ↓, Erick Crispim ↑,
89', Tiago Santana 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 1, Welves ⚽,
90+10', Welves 🟥,
90+10', Joao Victor 🟥,
90+11', 🟨,
90+11', 🟨,

Preview

Carlos Renaux has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Joinville has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carlos Renaux won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home match between the teams, Carlos Renaux won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Carlos Renaux
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	3:0 ✺
09.02.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Carlos Renaux	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Carlos Renaux - Figueirense	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Carlos Renaux - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 LTWLW
- Joinville
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	3:0 ✺
06.02.26	Figueirense - Joinville	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:4 ✺
25.01.26	Chapecoense - Joinville	6:0 ✺
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	3:0
21.01.26	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	0:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
01.10.25	Carlos Renaux - Joinville	2:0
21.09.25	Joinville - Carlos Renaux	4:2

Carlos Renaux - Joinville: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide