Match Info

Serie B - Round 29

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Guimaraes L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	Criciúma		Operário Ferroviario

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.20	4.00	Watch
	2.00	3.00	3.75
	2.02	3.10	3.90	Watch
	2.05	3.29	4.03
	2	3.19	4.01
	2.10	3.15	3.80
	2.00	3.13	3.85	Watch
	2.06	3.10	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.82)	3.15 ↓ (3.4)	3.87 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
46.2%

Draw
29.7%

Operário Ferroviario
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.4%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

29.8%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Operário Ferroviario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Criciúma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Criciúma - Operário Ferroviario Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Operário PR will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Operário PR (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 1 - 50%). Operário PR (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Airton (G) 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 37. Cesar Martins 13. Waguininho 6. Marcinho 14. Ronald Lopes 22. Marcelo Hermes 10. Jhonata Robert 9. Nicolas 7. Fellipe Mateus	33. Vagner (G) 2. Mikael Doka 22. Cuenu J. 43. Joseph 27. Gabriel Feliciano 20. Vinicius Diniz 39. Matheus Trindade 7. Torres A. 10. Boschilia (C) 14. Pereira H. 99. Caio Dantas
Substitutes
34. Bruno Alves 88. Caue Santos 5. Eduardo 8. Gui Lobo 31. Hiago Alves 41. Jean Irmer 21. Joao Carlos 91. Otero R. 70. Pedro Santos (G) 11. Romarinho 47. Romulus 33. Yuri Tanque	11. Aylon 21. Brenno Pereira 32. Charles Raphael 1. Elias Curzel (G) 5. Indio 4. Klaus 77. Maxwell 16. Miranda 88. Neto Paraiba 17. Nicolas 30. Pedro Vilhena 8. Zuluaga J.
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Joseph 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Caio Dantas ⚽, Mikael Doka (A),
45', Waguininho 🟨,
45+5', Cuenu J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodrigo ↓, Caue Santos ↑,
46', Mikael Doka ↓, Miranda ↑,
65', Nicolas ↓, Yuri Tanque ↑,
65', Waguininho ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
70', Jhonata Robert ↓, Otero R. ↑,
72', Vinicius Diniz ↓, Indio ↑,
73', Pereira H. ↓, Maxwell ↑,
80', Marcelo Hermes 🟨,
80', Torres A. ↓, Aylon ↑,
82', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Gui Lobo ↑,
85', Yuri Tanque 🟨,
89', Gabriel Feliciano ↓, Zuluaga J. ↑,
90+6', 0 - 2, Maxwell ⚽, Boschilia (A),

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ PlayoffsFinal) and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Criciúma (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Operário PR is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Criciúma could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Criciúma carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Criciúma: Diego Goncalves (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for Operário PR: Moraes (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Criciúma: Willean Lepo (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Operário PR: Pablo (Inactive).

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Criciúma has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:12 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Criciúma against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 5:5 goals (averaging 1.3:1.3 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Criciuma: 5.88% Operario-PR: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
9	Operario-PR	32	13	9	10	44:43	1	48

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.19%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Operário Ferroviario - the odds 4.35 are the expected chance of winning is 21.42%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.26	Atlético Goianiense - Criciúma	4:0 ✺
08.09.26	Criciúma - Juventude	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Criciúma - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	CRB Maceio - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Criciúma - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLL
- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
15.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Operário Ferroviario	3:3 ✺
09.09.26	Operário Ferroviario - CRB Maceio	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Fortaleza - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
24.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Criciúma	1:1
01.08.25	Operário Ferroviario - Criciúma	1:0
04.04.25	Criciúma - Operário Ferroviario	1:2
17.08.22	Criciúma - Operário Ferroviario	2:0
07.05.22	Operário Ferroviario - Criciúma	2:0
05.11.19	Operário Ferroviario - Criciúma	1:0
03.08.19	Criciúma - Operário Ferroviario	1:2

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