Match Info

Serie B - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa)

Referee: Guimaraes L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Operário Ferroviario		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.00	3.30	Watch
	2.30	2.95	3.10
	2.32	2.95	3.30
	2.43	3.10	3.35
	2.36	3.04	3.21
	2.35	3.00	3.30
	2.49	2.93	3.07	Watch
	2.33	3.00	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.07)	3 ↓ (3.28)	3.22 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Operário Ferroviario
39.6%

Draw
31.3%

Vila Nova
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.2%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

28.1%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Operário Ferroviario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Operário Ferroviario's form might have worsened.

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Operário Ferroviario, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Operário PR will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Elias Curzel (G) 26. Maguinho 22. Cuenu J. 43. Joseph 6. Moraes 39. Matheus Trindade 20. Vinicius Diniz 7. Torres A. 77. Maxwell 14. Pereira H. 92. Pablo (C)	1. Helton Leite (G) 22. Hayner 3. Tiago Pagnussat 23. Breno Augusto 6. Higor 8. Willian Maranhao 5. Joao Vieira 15. Dudu 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 7. Andre Luis
Substitutes
11. Aylon 99. Caio Dantas 32. Charles Raphael 41. Diego Monteiro (G) 27. Gabriel Feliciano 5. Indio 23. Joao Gabriel 4. Klaus 88. Neto Paraiba 30. Pedro Vilhena 9. Vinicius Mingotti 8. Zuluaga J.	33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 17. Everton Galdino 9. Gustavo Puskas 21. Higor Meritao 16. Igor Carius 20. Nathan Camargo 13. Willian Formiga
Coaches
Luizinho Lopes	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Pablo 🟨,
23', Dudu 🟨,
37', Maxwell 🟨,
45+2', Joao Vieira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
69', Maxwell ↓, Vinicius Mingotti ↑,
74', Moraes 🟨,
75', Pereira H. ↓, Aylon ↑,
83', Everton Galdino ↓, Nathan Camargo ↑,
87', Andre Luis ↓, Gustavo Puskas ↑,
87', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Dodo ↑,
87', Janderson ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
88', Pablo ↓, Caio Dantas ↑,
88', Torres A. ↓, Neto Paraiba ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 0.

Recent form of Operário PR has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vila Nova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vila Nova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Operário PR is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Operário PR: Boschilia (Yellow Cards) Cuenu J. (Injury) Vagner (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Rafa Silva (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Douglas Mendes (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Operário PR won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Operário PR won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.4:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
9	Operario-PR	32	13	9	10	44:43	1	48

Last Results with these Odds

Operário Ferroviario - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.72%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
19.08.26	Cuiabá - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Avaí	1:2 ✺
07.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - São Bernardo	1:3 ✺
27.07.26	Atlético Goianiense - Operário Ferroviario	3:1 ✺
22.07.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
15.08.26	Atlético Goianiense - Vila Nova	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
27.07.26	CRB Maceio - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
21.07.26	Vila Nova - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.04.26	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	2:1
02.11.25	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	2:2
11.07.25	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	0:0
20.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	2:3
04.05.24	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	1:0
30.09.22	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	1:1
16.06.22	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	0:0

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