Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 10

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Criciúma		Náutico Marcílio Dias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.48	3.8	5.8
	1.5	3.7	6.57
	1.5	3.74	6.5	Watch
	1.47	3.92	6.77
	1.48	3.8	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.67)	3.79 ↑ (3.4)	6.29 ↑ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
61.4%

Draw
24.1%

Náutico Marcílio Dias
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

26.8%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

25.8%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Criciúma's performance.

Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Criciúma - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaua Moroso (G) 8. Everton Morelli 7. Fellipe Mateus 13. Jonathan 23. Juninho 4. Luciano Castan 22. Marcelo Hermes 5. Matheus Trindade 9. Neto Pessoa 3. Rodrigo (C) 11. Talisson	1. Anderson (G) 7. Bonassa 5. Felipe Baiano 11. Felipe Santos 10. Geovany Soares 9. Joao Carlos 4. Luan 3. Lucas Costa 8. Marquinhos 6. Marquinhos Pedroso 2. Victor Guilherme (C)
Substitutes
17. Eduardo Melo 15. Eliedson 20. Gabriel Barros 10. Jhonata Robert 21. Joao Carlos 6. Luiz Henrique 2. Nolasco 18. Paulo Vitor 14. Ruan Carvalho 12. Santos P. (G) 16. Streit M. 19. Werik Popo	16. Brendon Sobral 15. Denner 12. Erivelton (G) 13. Felipe Manoel 14. Gerson 18. Gustavo Modesto 19. Gustavo Poffo 22. Italo Magnata 24. Jamerson J. 21. Jeffinho 20. Juninho Tardelli 17. Luis Fabiano

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Talisson ↓, Gabriel Barros ↑,
48', Matheus Trindade 🟨,
57', Joao Carlos ↓, Gustavo Poffo ↑,
65', Neto Pessoa ↓, Eduardo Melo ↑,
65', Matheus Trindade ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
66', Bonassa ↓, Felipe Manoel ↑,
67', Geovany Soares ↓, Italo Magnata ↑,
78', Felipe Santos ↓, Jamerson J. ↑,
78', Marquinhos Pedroso ↓, Gerson ↑,
79', Felipe Santos 🟨,
88', Jonathan ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
88', Everton Morelli ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
90+2', Victor Guilherme 🟨,
90+3', Lucas Costa 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+7', Werik Popo 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Criciúma is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:6 (average 0.9:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Criciúma won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 0.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
12.02.25	Criciúma - Caravaggio	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Brusque - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Criciúma - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
29.01.25	Criciúma - Joinville	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LTTTW
- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
12.02.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	Avaí - Náutico Marcílio Dias	3:0 ✺
06.02.25	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:1 ✺
02.02.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Concórdia	0:0 ✺
30.01.25	Santa Catarina - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Criciúma	1:0
Brazilian Recopa Catarinense
16.01.24	Criciúma - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
26.01.23	Criciúma - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1
04.04.21	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Criciúma	1:1
30.07.20	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Criciúma	0:1
08.07.20	Criciúma - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:0
02.02.20	Criciúma - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:1

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