Match Info
Copa Santa Catarina - Round 4Date: 1 October 2025, WednesdayLocation: Ressacada (Florianópolis)
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Avaí |
|
Náutico Marcílio Dias |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
8.95 |
4.25 |
1.33 |
|
 |
7 |
4.2 |
1.35 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
7.98 ↑
(7.38) |
4.23 ↑
(4.2) |
1.34 ↓
(1.38) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Avaí
11.3% | Draw
21.4% | Náutico Marcílio Dias
67.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+0.7%)Avaí - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 4)
- 5', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 34', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 37', 0 - 3, ⚽,
- 39', 0 - 4, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 84', 0 - 5, ⚽,
- 86', 1 - 5, ⚽,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 3.Recent form of Avaí has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).Marcílio Dias has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Marcílio Dias may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Marcílio Dias is the undisputed favorite.In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.9:1.3).Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:7. (average 2.6:1).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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