Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)


	Chapecoense		Criciúma

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.6	2.98	2.85
	2.62	3	2.82	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.7
	2.54	2.79	2.79
	2.57	2.83	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.04)	2.88 ↓ (3.1)	2.79 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
35.6%

Draw
31.7%

Criciúma
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

28.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

25.6%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chapecoense's form might have worsened.

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chapecoense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Criciúma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chapecoense - Criciúma Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Chapecoense (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Criciúma (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 1 - 25%). Criciúma (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 26. Everton 10. Giovanni Augusto 77. Italo 7. Marcinho 99. Rafael Carvalheira 25. Victor Caetano	1. Alisson (G) 5. Cesar Martins 11. Diego Goncalves 7. Eduardo 8. Jean Irmer 10. Jhonata Robert 4. Luciano Castan 22. Marcelo Hermes 3. Rodrigo (C) 9. Waguininho 2. Willean Lepo
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 22. Higor Meritao 20. Jean Carlos 5. Joao Vitor 21. Kauan 90. Mailson 2. Marcos Vinicius 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi 35. Vinicius Eduardo	18. Bidu 15. Eliel Costa 13. Erick Garcia 12. Georgemy (G) 16. Hiago Alves 21. Joao Carlos 20. Leo Mana 6. Marcinho 19. Nicolas 14. Octavio Henrique 24. Santos P. (G) 17. Thales

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cesar Martins ↓, Nicolas ↑,
46', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
46', Everton ↓, Marcos Vinicius ↑,
57', 🟨,
59', Italo ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
62', Diego Goncalves 🟨,
63', Bolasie Y. 🟨,
72', Camilo Reijers ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
74', Leo Vieira 🟨,
74', Eduardo ↓, Hiago Alves ↑,
78', Marcelo Hermes 🟨,
83', Marcinho ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
85', Jhonata Robert ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
88', Waguininho ↓, Bidu ↑,
90+5', Higor Meritao 🟨,
90+6', Jean Irmer 🟥,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2.

Chapecoense is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Criciúma's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 42.98%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.26	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Chapecoense - Joinville	6:0 ✺
21.01.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 TWWWT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.26	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Criciúma - Brusque	3:3 ✺
22.01.26	Camboriú - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
19.01.26	Criciúma - Concórdia	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.26	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
07.09.25	Criciúma - Chapecoense	2:0
04.05.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0
02.03.24	Criciúma - Chapecoense	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
13.10.23	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2
24.06.23	Chapecoense - Criciúma	1:1

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