Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Rajko Mitić (Belgrade)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade		Lille

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.6	2.25
	2.65	3.4	2.55
	3	3.6	2.35
	3.03	3.59	2.37
	2.97	3.6	2.31	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.3
	3.12	3.59	2.41
	2.66	3.6	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (3.13)	3.54 ↑ (3.45)	2.37 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
32.8%

Draw
27%

Lille
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

27.6%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27.2%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.8%	10.6%	25.5%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 30 - 63.8%). Lille will win (votes: 12 - 25.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 10.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crvena Zvezda: 50.1% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Crvena Zvezda (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Lille (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Crvena Zvezda (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Crvena Zvezda (1.56) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 60%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Crvena Zvezda (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Lille (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus (G) 25. Erakovic S. 5. Rodrigo 30. Tebo Uchenna F. 66. Seol Young-Woo 20. Handel T. 33. Krunic R. (C) 23. Tiknizyan N. 22. Kostov V. 17. Bruno Duarte 42. Enem J.	1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 23. Mandi A. 18. Mbemba Ch. 15. Perraud R. 21. Andre B. (C) 32. Bouaddi A. 28. Perrin G. 10. Haraldsson H. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 9. Giroud O.
Substitutes
89. Arnautovic M. 71. Avdic A. 6. Bajo M. 28. Draskic V. (G) 21. Elsnik T. 18. Glazer O. (G) 45. Gudelj S. 10. Katai A. 35. Owusu D. 13. Veljkovic M. 40. Zaric L.	6. Bentaleb N. 16. Bodart A. (G) 42. Boussadia S. 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 38. Goffi A. 60. Lanssade Z. (G) 17. Mukau N. 3. Ngoy N. 24. Verdonk C.
Coaches
Stankovic D.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Giroud O. ⚽, Andre B. (A),
36', Tebo Uchenna F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Enem J. ↓, Arnautovic M. ↑,
46', Tebo Uchenna F. ↓, Veljkovic M. ↑,
52', Bouaddi A. 🟨,
68', Handel T. 🟨,
71', Handel T. ↓, Elsnik T. ↑,
71', Perrin G. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
94', Santos T. ↓, Ngoy N. ↑,
94', Haraldsson H. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
99', 0 - 2, Ngoy N. ⚽, Correia F. (A),
104', Rodrigo ↓, Owusu D. ↑,
104', Kostov V. ↓, Katai A. ↑,
106', Tiknizyan N. ↓, Avdic A. ↑,
106', Perraud R. ↓, Verdonk C. ↑,
120+1', Avdic A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.

Crvena Zvezda has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lille's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Crvena Zvezda: Ivanic M. (Inactive) Lucic V. (Yellow Cards) Radonjic N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lille: Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Meunier T. (Muscle Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Alexsandro (Calf Injury) Caillard M. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Crvena Zvezda won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, Crvena Zvezda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
22.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Partizan	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
Serbian Superliga
14.02.26	Železničar Pančevo - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:3 ✺
Serbian Cup
11.02.26	Budućnost Dobanovci - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:4 ✺
Serbian Superliga
07.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Novi Pazar	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWWW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Angers - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Lille - Brest	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Metz - Lille	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Lyon - Lille	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1
06.11.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	1:0

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