Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 21

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Paradis G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
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World	Onefootball


	Metz		Lille

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.33	1.5	Watch
	5.9	4.3	1.55	Watch
	6.42	4.4	1.54
	5.96	4.28	1.54	Watch
	5.5	4	1.53
	6.35	4.48	1.58	Watch
	6	4.2	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.05 ↑ (4.37)	4.28 ↑ (3.97)	1.54 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
15.8%

Draw
22.3%

Lille
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

23.8%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

23.5%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Metz's form might have worsened.

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lille's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Metz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	8.3%	87.5%

Metz - Lille Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Lille (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lille (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Lille will win (41 of 47 users predict this - 87.23%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.69% – 96.77%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 22 - 88%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 4. Mboula U. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 21. Stambouli B. 20. Deminguet J. 12. Toure A. 19. Michal L. 30. Diallo H. (C) 7. Tsitaishvili G.	1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 23. Mandi A. 4. Alexsandro 15. Perraud R. 32. Bouaddi A. 21. Andre B. (C) 20. Edjouma N. 10. Haraldsson H. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 9. Giroud O.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 40. Ba O. (G) 2. Colin M. 10. Hein G. 11. Kvilitaia G. 18. Mbala N. 33. Munongo B. 70. Sarr B. 15. Yegbe T.	16. Bodart A. (G) 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 26. Gomes A. 18. Mbemba Ch. 17. Mukau N. 3. Ngoy N. 28. Perrin G. 24. Verdonk C.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Fernandez-Pardo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Edjouma N. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
62', Michal L. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
71', Deminguet J. ↓, Hein G. ↑,
71', Giroud O. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
71', Haraldsson H. ↓, Perrin G. ↑,
71', Stambouli B. ↓, Munongo B. ↑,
73', Kouao K. 🟨,
82', Perraud R. ↓, Verdonk C. ↑,
82', Santos T. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
90', Tsitaishvili G. ↓, Kvilitaia G. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 0.

Metz is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lille has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Metz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lille is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Metz: Gbamin J. (Red Card) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Sarr B. (Knee Injury) Sy P. (Concussion)

There will not play in Lille: Bentaleb N. (Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Meunier T. (Muscle Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Metz won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:28. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 1.1:2.3).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 4.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Angers - Metz	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Metz - Lyon	2:5 ✺
18.01.26	Strasbourg - Metz	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Metz - Montpellier	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Lorient - Metz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLT
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Lyon - Lille	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Lille - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
25.01.26	Lille - Strasbourg	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Celta de Vigo - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
16.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
26.10.25	Lille - Metz	6:1
28.04.24	Metz - Lille	1:2
03.12.23	Lille - Metz	2:0
18.02.22	Lille - Metz	0:0
08.08.21	Metz - Lille	3:3
09.04.21	Metz - Lille	0:2
13.09.20	Lille - Metz	1:0

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