Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 9

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.85	3.45	4.15	Watch
	1.88	3.55	4.59
	1.85	3.57	4.39	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4
	1.88	3.54	4.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.89)	3.49 ↑ (3.35)	4.31 ↑ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
51%

Draw
27.1%

Athletico Paranaense
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

27.6%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.7%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Bahia - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Bahia (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bahia (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Leo Vieira (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 8. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 99. Olivera C. 27. Everaldo 16. Erick Pulga	23. Santos (C) 13. Teran C. 33. Aguirre F. 3. Leo 29. Benavidez G. 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo 53. Dudu Kogitzki 20. Julimar 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 89. Dell 14. Erick 3. Gabriel Xavier 2. Gilberto 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 11. Rodrigo 12. Willian Jose	48. Bruninho 26. Claudinho 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 11. Isaac 8. Joao Cruz 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Mucke R.	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Everaldo ⚽, Jean Lucas (A),
26', David Duarte 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Everaldo ⚽, Luciano Juba (A),
42', Jadson 🟨,
45+2', Everaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Julimar ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
46', Teran C. ↓, Leo Derik ↑,
46', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Portilla J. ↑,
60', Caio Alexandre ↓, Erick ↑,
66', Jadson ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
68', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
68', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
78', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Bruninho ↑,
85', Olivera C. ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
85', Everaldo ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
90', Benavidez G. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 0, Luciano Juba ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bahia is the team to beat.

There will not play in Bahia: Everton Ribeiro (Hamstring Injury) Gilberto (Muscle Injury) Kanu (Hamstring Injury) Ruan Pablo (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Arthur Dias (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Bahia: Ronaldo Strada (Injury) Willian Jose (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Arthur Dias (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
22.03.26	Remo - Bahia	4:1 ✺
18.03.26	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Internacional RS - Bahia	0:1 ✺
11.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	4:1 ✺
22.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 ✺
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
24.11.24	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
10.07.24	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	1:3
12.11.23	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
16.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:0
Copa do Brasil
12.07.22	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1
22.06.22	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
09.10.21	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	0:2

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