Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 36

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Juventude		Bahia

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.15	3.35	2.18
	3.29	3.5	2.29
	3.34	3.31	2.19	Watch
	3.58	3.37	2.21	Watch
	3.2	3.33	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↓ (3.38)	3.36 ↑ (3.28)	2.23 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
28.8%

Draw
28.4%

Bahia
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

29.3%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

28.8%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	27.3%	36.4%

Juventude - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Juventude will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Juventude: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 20%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Juventude (3.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Juventude (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jandrei (G) 93. Reginaldo 3. Luan Freitas 34. Rodrigo Sam 47. Marcos Paulo 95. Caique Goncalves 44. Mandaca 10. Nene (C) 22. Marcelo Hermes 19. Gabriel Taliari 99. Rafael Bilu	96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 4. Kanu 3. Gabriel Xavier 46. Luciano Juba 26. Nicolas Acevedo 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 16. Erick Pulga 12. Willian Jose 7. Ademir
Substitutes
23. Abner 28. Alan Ruschel 87. Edison Negueba 97. Enio 2. Ewerthon 11. Giovanny 8. Giraldo D. 16. Jadson 17. Matheus Babi 36. Nata 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 90. Scatolin J.	13. Arias S. 19. Caio Alexandre 8. Cauly 14. Erick 83. Fred Lippert 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 37. Kayky 44. Luiz Gustavo 11. Rodrigo 77. Tiago 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Ademir ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
28', 1 - 1, Gabriel Taliari ⚽, Marcelo Hermes (A),
37', Jean Lucas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jean Lucas ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
53', Rafael Bilu ↓, Edison Negueba ↑,
56', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
59', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Erick ↑,
63', Caique Goncalves 🟨,
69', Nene ↓, Matheus Babi ↑,
69', Reginaldo ↓, Ewerthon ↑,
71', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
71', Erick Pulga ↓, Tiago ↑,
78', Gabriel Xavier 🟨,
85', Rodrigo Sam 🟨,
85', Luan Freitas ↓, Enio ↑,
85', Caique Goncalves ↓, Jadson ↑,
86', Willian Jose ↓, Cauly ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bahia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Juventude: Angel W. (Inactive) Gilberto (Muscle Injury) Igor Formiga (Red Card) Peixoto (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: David Duarte (Injury) Ramos S. (Red Card) Ruan Pablo (International duty) Sanabria M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Juventude: Emerson Galego (Ankle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Juventude won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 42.31%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
23.11.25	São Paulo - Juventude	2:1 ✺
20.11.25	Juventude - Cruzeiro	3:3 ✺
08.11.25	Vasco da Gama - Juventude	1:3 ✺
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Juventude - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.9 LTWWL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
23.11.25	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
20.11.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:3 ✺
08.11.25	Internacional RS - Bahia	2:2 ✺
05.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.07.25	Bahia - Juventude	3:0
09.11.24	Juventude - Bahia	2:1
04.07.24	Bahia - Juventude	2:0
30.10.21	Juventude - Bahia	0:0
07.07.21	Bahia - Juventude	1:0

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