Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 3

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Cuiabá		Ceará

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.28	2.92	3.3	Watch
	2.37	2.92	3.64
	2.7	2.83	2.95	Watch
	2.25	2.88	3.3
	2.23	3.08	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.51)	2.96 ↓ (2.97)	3.33 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
40.1%

Draw
31.7%

Ceará
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

31.1%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

31%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Cuiabá - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Marcelo Carne (G) 37. Raylan 5. Calebe Costa 13. Joao Basso 6. Marlon 8. Pepe 88. David Miguel 10. Hernades 30. Raul (C) 41. Kauan Cristtyan 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues	1. Richard (G) 21. Alex Silva 33. Eder 4. Luiz Otavio 12. Sanchez 26. Richardson (C) 18. Julio Cesar 40. Melk 10. Juan Alano 98. Matheusinho 35. Giulio
Substitutes
7. Asad Y. 14. Eric Melo 21. Gabriel Mineiro 1. Joao Carlos (G) 26. Joao Vitor 36. Lorenzo 97. Luiz Otavio 19. Mateus Santos 2. Nino Paraiba 29. Vinicius Peixoto 4. Vitor Mendes 53. Weverson	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 11. Fernandinho 17. Fernando 63. Gilmar 30. Gustavo Prado 81. Joao Gabriel 99. Lucca 13. Luiz Otavio 8. Matheus Araujo 2. Ramos R. 29. Vina 9. Wendel Silva
Coaches
Barros E.	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Richard 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Melk ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
57', Matheusinho ↓, Wendel Silva ↑,
58', Giulio ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
58', Pepe ↓, Mateus Santos ↑,
61', Rodrigo Rodrigues (Penalty Awarded),
69', Richardson 🟨,
70', Rodrigo Rodrigues ↓, Vinicius Peixoto ↑,
70', Kauan Cristtyan ↓, Gabriel Mineiro ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Juan Alano ⚽, Wendel Silva (A),
77', Richardson ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
79', 0 - 2, Juan Alano ⚽, Joao Gabriel (A),
80', Joao Basso ↓, Weverson ↑,
80', Raylan ↓, Nino Paraiba ↑,
84', Juan Alano ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
86', Matheus Araujo 🟨,
90', Mateus Santos (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Joao Gabriel 🟨,

Preview

Cuiabá is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ceará's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Inactive) Eliel (Inactive)

There will not play in Ceará: Diego (Inactive) Lucas Lima (Red Card) Pedro Henrique (Lacking Match Fitness) Ronald Carvalho (Inactive) Vina (Inactive) Vinicius Zanocelo (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cuiabá won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Last Results with these Odds

Cuiabá - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.73%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
31.03.26	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
28.03.26	Gama - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
25.03.26	Cuiabá - Tocantinópolis	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Cuiabá - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Santa Catarina - Cuiabá	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLTTL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
01.04.26	Ponte Preta - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
28.03.26	Retrô Brasil - Ceará	3:1 ✺
25.03.26	Ceará - ABC	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Ceará - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.10.22	Ceará - Cuiabá	1:1
18.06.22	Cuiabá - Ceará	0:0
07.11.21	Ceará - Cuiabá	1:0
11.07.21	Cuiabá - Ceará	2:2

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