Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 1

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Cuiabá		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	3.1	Watch
	2.35	3.1	2.85
	2.44	3.17	3.19
	2.44	3.13	2.99	Watch
	2.4	2.9	2.9
	2.41	3.01	3.11	Watch
	2.21	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.15)	3.04 ↑ (3)	3.08 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
39.2%

Draw
30.6%

Sport Recife
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

30.5%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

30.2%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Cuiabá - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Marcelo Carne (G) 37. Railan 44. Gabriel 4. Vitor Mendes 6. Marlon 5. Calebe Costa 30. Raul (C) 8. Pepe 36. Lorenzo 29. Vinicius Peixoto 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues	26. Thiago Couto (G) 68. Augusto 40. Ramon Menezes 4. Ze Marcos 60. Felipinho 23. Ze Gabriel 95. Iury Castilho 7. Yago Felipe (C) 58. Ze Lucas 11. Gustavo Maia 99. Ze Roberto
Substitutes
57. Aiyran 88. David Miguel 14. Eric Melo 21. Gabriel Mineiro 1. Joao Carlos (G) 91. Luisao 97. Luiz Otavio 19. Mateus Santos 2. Nino Paraiba 53. Weverson	6. Biel Fonseca 25. Clayson 65. Dede 10. de Pena C. 71. do Rozario Teixeira F. 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 1. Halls (G) 31. Marlon Douglas 77. Micael 63. Patrick 66. Rafinha
Coaches
Barros E.	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Yago Felipe 🟨,
45+1', Vitor Mendes ↓, Luisao ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pepe ↓, David Miguel ↑,
55', Gabriel 🟨,
67', Lorenzo ↓, Weverson ↑,
72', Ze Lucas ↓, Dede ↑,
72', Ze Roberto ↓, Micael ↑,
78', Vinicius Peixoto ↓, Mateus Santos ↑,
78', Railan ↓, Nino Paraiba ↑,
81', Gustavo Maia ↓, Clayson ↑,
81', Iury Castilho ↓, do Rozario Teixeira F. ↑,
86', Clayson 🟨,
87', Yago Felipe ↓, de Pena C. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Cuiabá has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Recife is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recife may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Inactive) Derik Lacerda (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive)

There are questionable in Recife: Benevenuto (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cuiabá won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Santa Catarina - Cuiabá	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
12.02.26	Sport Sinop - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Cuiabá - Várzea Grande	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Cuiabá - União Rondonópolis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLWW
- Sport Recife
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
12.03.26	Sport Recife - Anápolis	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.03.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Sport Recife	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
01.03.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
14.10.21	Cuiabá - Sport Recife	1:0
27.06.21	Sport Recife - Cuiabá	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
14.10.19	Sport Recife - Cuiabá	2:0
15.07.19	Cuiabá - Sport Recife	1:1

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