Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 22

Date: 10 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Peru	L1 Play
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Sportbox.ru
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Cuiabá		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.4	Watch
	2.3	3	3.5
	2.35	3	3.3
	2.16	3.27	3.81
	2.33	3.08	3.38	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.36	3.08	3.3	Watch
	2.35	3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.55)	3.07 ↓ (3.27)	3.4 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
41.2%

Draw
30.9%

Grêmio
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

28.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.2%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.2%	25%	20.8%

Cuiabá - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cuiabá: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walter (C) 2. Matheus Alexandre 4. Marllon 34. Bruno Alves 33. Alan Empereur 63. Juan Tavares 30. Lucas Mineiro 88. Fernando Sobral 10. Max Alves 97. Andre Luis 9. Pitta I.	97. Caique (G) 18. Joao Pedro 53. Gustavo Martins 36. Nata 2. Fabio 20. Villasanti M. (C) 23. Pepe 15. Edenilson 11. Monsalve M. 22. Braithwaite M. 39. Gustavo Nunes
Substitutes
25. Clayson 27. Denilson Alves 22. Derik Lacerda 11. Eliel 5. Filipe Augusto 44. Gabriel 8. Guilherme Madruga 7. Jonathan Cafu 18. Lucas Fernandes 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 12. Rhyan (G)	16. Aravena A. 9. Arezo M. 10. Cristaldo F. 17. Dodi 37. Du Queiroz 28. Jemerson 14. Nathan 32. Nathan Fernandes 3. Pedro Geromel 33. Rafael Cabral (G) 35. Ronald 46. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Petit	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Gustavo Nunes ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Fabio ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Braithwaite M. (Own goal),
59', Andre Luis ↓, Derik Lacerda ↑,
59', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lucas Fernandes ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Braithwaite M. ⚽, Monsalve M. (A),
71', Caique 🟨,
72', Juan Tavares ↓, Railan ↑,
72', Bruno Alves ↓, Clayson ↑,
74', Monsalve M. ↓, Dodi ↑,
74', Edenilson ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
74', Edenilson 🟨,
83', Max Alves ↓, Eliel ↑,
86', 1 - 3, Braithwaite M. ⚽,
88', Pepe ↓, Ronald ↑,
90', Braithwaite M. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
90+7', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 0.

Cuiabá has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Grêmio is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cuiabá could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Cuiabá will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique (Injury) Jhonata Robert (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 4-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.24	Vitória Salvador - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
28.07.24	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.07.24	Cuiabá - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Cuiabá - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.07.24	Palestino - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLT
- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Grêmio - Corinthians	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.24	Corinthians - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.07.24	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
25.07.24	Corinthians - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Grêmio - Cuiabá	1:0
03.09.23	Grêmio - Cuiabá	2:0
30.04.23	Cuiabá - Grêmio	1:2
06.10.21	Grêmio - Cuiabá	2:2
18.08.21	Cuiabá - Grêmio	0:1
Copa do Brasil
18.11.20	Grêmio - Cuiabá	2:0
11.11.20	Cuiabá - Grêmio	1:2

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