Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 18

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.55
	2.98	2.98	2.52	Watch
	3.19	3.1	2.59
	2.87	3.16	2.62	Watch
	3	2.88	2.45
	3.11	3.05	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.37)	3.05 ↓ (3.25)	2.53 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
31.5%

Draw
31.1%

Corinthians
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29.3%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

29.2%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corinthians's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Corinthians, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.4%	60.9%	21.7%

Grêmio - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Corinthians will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 14. Marcos Rocha 3. Wagner Leonardo 44. Viery 54. Pedro Gabriel 8. Arthur Melo (C) 33. Perez L. 21. Tete 22. Braithwaite M. 37. Gabriel Mec 95. Carlos Vinicius	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 49. Andre 14. Raniele 37. Kaio Cesar 8. Garro R. (C) 7. Breno Bidon 9. Yuri Alberto
Substitutes
9. Amuzu F. 77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 18. Joao Pedro 31. Menegon G. (G) 19. Noriega E. 39. Tiago 20. Villasanti M. 4. Walter Kannemann 10. Willian	80. Alex Santana 29. Allan 5. Andre Ramalho 26. Angileri F. 19. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 56. Gui Negao 51. Kaue (G) 52. Labyad Z. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M.
Coaches
Castro L.	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Gabriel Mec ⚽,
41', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
44', Garro R. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Andre ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Marcos Rocha ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
53', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
62', Braithwaite M. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Andre ⚽, Yuri Alberto (A),
67', 1 - 3, Kaio Cesar ⚽, Yuri Alberto (A),
68', Kaio Cesar 🟨,
69', Enamorado J. 🟨,
75', Thiago Beltrame 🟥,
80', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Menegon G. ↑,
80', Gabriel Mec ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
82', Raniele ↓, Allan ↑,
88', Kaio Cesar ↓, Labyad Z. ↑,
88', Andre ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
90+2', Viery 🟨,
90+4', Garro R. ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
90+4', Breno Bidon ↓, Dieguinho ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 0.

Grêmio is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Corinthians has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Grêmio: Fabian Balbuena (International duty) Marlon (Broken ankle) Nardoni J. (Hamstring Injury) Weverton (International duty)

There will not play in Corinthians: Depay M. (International duty) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Kayke (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Gustavo Martins (Knock) Pavon C. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 3 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Copa Sudamericana
26.05.26	Grêmio - Montevideo City Torque	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	Grêmio - Santos	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.05.26	Grêmio - Palestino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Confiança - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWWTW
- Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
27.05.26	Corinthians - Platense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.26	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Corinthians - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.11.25	Corinthians - Grêmio	2:0
12.06.25	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:1
08.12.24	Grêmio - Corinthians	0:3
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Grêmio - Corinthians	0:1 penalties
31.07.24	Corinthians - Grêmio	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
25.07.24	Corinthians - Grêmio	2:2
12.11.23	Grêmio - Corinthians	0:1

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