Match Info

III Liga - Group IV - Round 32

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday


	Czarni Połaniec		Star Starachowice

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.55	3.25
	1.91	3.57	3.25
	2	3.75	3.07	Watch
	2	3.25	3.1
	1.92	3.55	3.35	Watch
	2.55	3.5	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.45)	3.53 ↑ (3.47)	3.04 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Czarni Połaniec
44.3%

Draw
25.8%

Star Starachowice
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

25.5%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

25.3%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Czarni Połaniec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Czarni Połaniec's performance.

Star Starachowice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Star Starachowice might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Czarni Połaniec than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Czarni Połaniec that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Star Starachowice than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Star Starachowice could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Czarni Połaniec - Star Starachowice Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Czarni Połaniec won 0.

Czarni Połaniec has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Star Starachowice is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Czarni Połaniec won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:17. (average 1:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Czarni Połaniec won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18:16	2	20
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13:17	-4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Czarni Połaniec - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.14%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Star Starachowice - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 38.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Czarni Połaniec
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
13.05.26	Sokół Kolbuszowa Dolna - Czarni Połaniec	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Czarni Połaniec - Wiślanie Skawina	1:0 ✺
01.05.26	Świdniczanka Świdnik - Czarni Połaniec	1:4 ✺
25.04.26	Czarni Połaniec - Stal Kraśnik	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Siarka Tarnobrzeg - Czarni Połaniec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWTT
- Star Starachowice
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
13.05.26	Star Starachowice - Avia Świdnik	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Chełmianka Chełm - Star Starachowice	5:2 ✺
01.05.26	Star Starachowice - Naprzód Jędrzejów	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Sokół Kolbuszowa Dolna - Star Starachowice	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Star Starachowice - Wiślanie Skawina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group IV
31.10.25	Star Starachowice - Czarni Połaniec	3:2
26.04.25	Czarni Połaniec - Star Starachowice	0:2
28.09.24	Star Starachowice - Czarni Połaniec	4:1
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Czarni Połaniec - Star Starachowice	2:3
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
16.03.24	Star Starachowice - Czarni Połaniec	4:0
23.08.23	Czarni Połaniec - Star Starachowice	1:1

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