Match Info

III Liga - Group IV - Round 14

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Czarni Połaniec		Busko-Zdrój

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.50	5.25
	1.43	4.30	5.30
	1.47	4.30	5.00
	1.46	4.6	5.2	Watch
	1.45	4.25	4.95
	1.53	4.48	4.91	Watch
	1.45	4.35	4.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.53)	4.4 ↑ (4)	5.03 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Czarni Połaniec
61.7%

Draw
20.5%

Busko-Zdrój
17.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.8%

22.1%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.4%

20.5%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Czarni Połaniec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Busko-Zdrój has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Czarni Połaniec than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Busko-Zdrój than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Czarni Połaniec - Busko Zdrój Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Rozycki J. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Smolen M. ⚽,
45+2', Banik M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', 2 - 1, Banik M. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top-ranked clubs faces a lower-table side fighting for vital survival points (ranked 5th and 15th in the Relegation).

Czarni Połaniec is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Busko-Zdrój have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Czarni Połaniec is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20:18	2	24
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20:32	-12	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Czarni Połaniec
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
17.10.26	Czarni Połaniec - Chełmianka Chełm	0:0 ✺
11.10.26	Hetman Zamość - Czarni Połaniec	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Czarni Połaniec - KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski	1:1 ✺
25.09.26	Wisła II Kraków - Czarni Połaniec	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Czarni Połaniec - Naprzód Jędrzejów	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLTTL
- AKS Busko-Zdrój
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
18.10.26	Busko-Zdrój - Hetman Zamość	2:4 ✺
10.10.26	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Busko-Zdrój	5:0 ✺
04.10.26	Busko-Zdrój - Wisła II Kraków	3:0 ✺
26.09.26	Naprzód Jędrzejów - Busko-Zdrój	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Busko-Zdrój - Moravia Morawica	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Czarni Połaniec
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
31.10.26	JKS Jarosław - Czarni Połaniec	✺
- AKS Busko-Zdrój
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
31.10.26	Busko-Zdrój - Chełmianka Chełm	✺

Czarni Połaniec - Busko-Zdrój