Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 22

Date: 28 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla (Cadiz)

Referee: Busquets Ferrer M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	Optus Sport
Belgium	Eleven Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Cyprus	PrimeTel
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV4
United-kingdom	Viaplay
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Cádiz		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4.5	3.5	1.82
	4.5	3.6	1.85
	4.59	3.6	1.87
	4.88	3.53	1.85
	5	3.5	1.7
	4.93	3.57	1.88	Watch
	4.8	3.6	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.74 ↓ (5.37)	3.55 ↓ (3.73)	1.83 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cádiz
20.3%

Draw
27.1%

Athletic Bilbao
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

25.5%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

25.3%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cádiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cádiz than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.6%	6.2%	78.1%

Cádiz - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (50 of 64 users predict this - 78.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68% – 88.26%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ledesma C. (G) 20. Carcelen I. (C) 3. Fali 5. Chust V. 33. Lucas Pires 11. Alejo I. 4. Alcaraz R. 17. Escalante G. 27. Navarro R. 7. Sobrino R. 16. Ramos C.	1. Simon U. (G) 18. de Marcos O. (C) 3. Vivian D. 5. Alvarez Y. 15. Lekue I. 21. Herrera A. 6. Vesga M. 9. Williams I. 30. Gomez U. 29. Ares A. 20. Villalibre A.
Substitutes
8. Fernandez A. 13. Gil D. (G) 25. Gomez M. 19. Guardiola S. 6. Jose Mari 12. Kouame R. 14. Mbaye M. 22. Mere J. 9. Negredo A. 10. Ocampo B. 2. Zaldua J.	13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 17. Berchiche Y. 14. Garcia D. 22. Garcia R. 12. Guruzeta G. 31. Jauregizar M. 10. Muniain I. 23. Nolaskoain P. 4. Paredes A. 24. Prados Diaz B. 8. Sancet O. 11. Williams N.
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Valverde E.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cádiz won 1.

Cádiz is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Athletic is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cádiz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Athletic is a favorite.

There will not play in Cádiz: Hernandez J. (Injury) Hernandez L. (Knee Injury) Machis D. (Knee Injury) Marti R. (Foot Injury) San Emeterio F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Berenguer A. (Muscle Injury) Garcia D. (Injury) Ruiz de Galarreta I. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Cádiz won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 5-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Cádiz won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cádiz CF
Spanish LaLiga
19.01.24	Deportivo Alavés - Cádiz	1:0 ✺
14.01.24	Cádiz - Valencia	1:4 ✺
03.01.24	Granada - Cádiz	2:0 ✺
21.12.23	Cádiz - Real Sociedad	0:0 ✺
17.12.23	Las Palmas - Cádiz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLLTT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish Copa del Rey
24.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	4:2 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
20.01.24	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
07.01.24	Eibar - Athletic Bilbao	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
16.09.23	Athletic Bilbao - Cádiz	3:0
03.02.23	Athletic Bilbao - Cádiz	4:1
29.08.22	Cádiz - Athletic Bilbao	0:4
21.04.22	Cádiz - Athletic Bilbao	2:3
05.11.21	Athletic Bilbao - Cádiz	0:1
15.02.21	Cádiz - Athletic Bilbao	0:4
01.10.20	Athletic Bilbao - Cádiz	0:1

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